Primary bond market

Along with the influx of supply, the muni market remains "constructive" due to attractive yields, said Catherine Stienstra, head of municipal bond investments at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

All eyes are on Jackson Hole and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech this week, noted Cooper Howard, a fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab.

"Investor reception will remain the ultimate arbiter of muni performance and … the current state of the tax-exempt space to be well-positioned, even though munis are likely to continue to underperform USTs," said Jeff Lipton, a research analyst and market strategist.

At $1.8 billion, the tax-exempt and taxable deal is the largest on the calendar this week and it's the latest offering from the city since a $1.2 billion refunding issuance in July. 

As investors contemplate rate policy for the remainder of 2024, "there have been a few strategies from which to choose to boost yield — short positioning, curve extension and credit quality," noted Kim Olsan, senior fixed-income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Pent-up demand, dwindling federal aid and lower interest rates led to a 32% increase in municipal issuance in the first half of 2024.

New sales of tax-exempt bonds in California have been gobbled up by buyers looking to shield income from the state's high taxes and to lock in yields.

Municipal bond insurers wrapped $18.592 billion in the first half of 2024, a 19.5% increase from the $15.561 billion insured in the first half of 2023, according to LSEG data.

Barclays rate strategists believe the 10-year part of the Treasury curve has room to cheapen. "In that case, tax-exempts will likely not only follow, but underperform."

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows as investors added $528.7 million to funds after $674.1 million of inflows the week prior, according to LSEG Lipper. This marks seven straight weeks of inflows.