Primary bond market

The Maine Turnpike Authority is navigating a rocky road back to the market. 

Notable deals include a $600 million refunding deal by the New York City Municipal Water Authority and almost $400 million from Rochester, Minnesota.

"It seems like hitting last year's volumes should be within the strike zone for the marketplace," said Kyle Javes, a managing director and head of municipal fixed income at Piper Sandler.

Issuance for the week of March 31 is at $9.29 billion, with $8.011 billion of negotiated deals and $1.28 billion of competitive deals on tap.

California plans to price $2.5 billion in new money and refunding general obligation bonds next week, with retail orders Tuesday and final pricing Wednesday.

Following Wednesday's selloff, muni yields were cut even further, with yields rising up to six basis points, depending on the scale. Meanwhile, UST yields rose two basis points out long.

"We're navigating a crosscurrent of macro risks — tariffs, tax policy proposals, DOGE cuts, and evolving economic data — layered on top of a broader risk-off tone," said James Pruskowski, CIO of 16Rock Asset Management.

What's happening to the muni market is the "confluence of modest selling (via fund outflows and retail perhaps pausing during tax season); a heavy new issue calendar; and very thin near-term reinvestment expectations," said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

Another big deal from a major borrower is moving forward after Rochester's City Council last week approved a conduit bond sale for the Mayo Clinic.

Lighter supply, at an estimated $7.9 billion, and still-attractive valuations should allow for solid muni performance this week, said J.P. Morgan strategists.