Mutual funds

Outflows from municipal bond mutual funds intensified as Refinitiv Lipper reported $846.116 million was pulled from them as of Wednesday after $92.055 million of outflows the week prior. 

Even though yields have moved to higher ground, some participants say that even cheaper levels are needed to bring about more retail conviction. Muni-to-UST ratios are still rich.

For the week ending Wednesday, outflows intensified as Refinitiv Lipper reported $255.794 million was pulled from municipal bond mutual funds after $91.713 million of outflows the week prior. High-yield saw inflows.

The value of the municipal bond market decreased by 4.3% in the third quarter of 2022, said Pat Luby, a strategist at CreditSights.

"This week will likely have been the last active week of the year, but it turned out to be quite eventful," according to Barclays PLC.

Outflows returned as Refinitiv Lipper reported $1.217 billion was pulled out of municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday after $46.912 million of inflows the week prior.

The Fed chairman said he believes the Fed is getting close to a sufficiently restrictive level, but they're not quite there. While two good inflation reports are good, "there's still a long way to go to price stability."

Refinitiv Lipper reported $46.912 million was added to municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday after $1.394 billion of outflows the week prior.

"Yield curve inversion deepens and nears a four-decade low which is clearly setting up this economy for a recession that won't be a mild one," OANDA's Edward Moya said.

"Munis are poised to continue this rally into December as we can end 2022 on a high note and close out the worst-performing year on record for munis," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Munis saw the best performance in November in decades, with the asset class ending in the positive by 4.68%. The MSRB reported that trading volume reached another record in November, with 1.29 million municipal trades.

Markets took the news that it will soon be appropriate to increase the Fed funds target rate at a slower pace as good news.

The negotiated calendar this week is very light due to the Thanksgiving holiday, with only four deals above $100 million.

Issuance shrinks to $722 million while Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply sits at little more than $7 billion.

Municipals improved again Thursday, pushing the 10-year yield firmly below 3%, while Refinitiv Lipper reported $604.704 million of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday.

As market participants navigate through the remaining weeks of 2022, Jeff Lipton, managing director of credit research at Oppenheimer Inc., expects munis to maintain their outperformance over USTs

Munis were in their own lane while broader markets were mixed Monday as participants digested various Fed officials' comments on inflation and rate hike schedules.

Refinitiv Lipper reported $2.537 billion of outflows from municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday after $2.389 billion the week prior.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw more losses on Wednesday with the Investment Company Institute reporting another week of multi-billion-dollar outflows, bringing year-to-date losses to $123.3 billion.

The market has seen outflows for 13 straight weeks, per Refinitiv Lipper, but Nuveen strategists Anders S. Persson and John V. Miller said "selling is due primarily to investors harvesting tax losses."