Buy side

The correction to the municipal market has improved muni to UST ratios while uncertainty hangs over ahead of the election. J.P. Morgan's Peter DeGroot said the firm expects the end of next week "will mark the end of the difficult technical period in 2024 and believe that net supply in November will lead to better valuations broadly in the municipal market."

Several macro trends have converged to drive growth in municipal bond issuance, said participants at The Bond Buyer's California Public Finance conference.

The event went on as scheduled Tuesday against a backdrop of escalating conflict between the mayor and controller, with each requesting a probe of the other.

"Coming off rich muni-Treasury ratios, the market has swiftly repriced," said 16Rock Asset Management's James Pruskowski. "With now cheaper benchmark yields and wider credit spreads, fresh capital is flowing in, and a strong bottoming opportunity looks to be emerging."

As technology options grow, firms are looking for ways to streamline and scale workflows.

Despite this week's underperformance, exempt investment-grade munis continue to outperform taxable sectors.

Craig Brothers, partner, portfolio manager and co-head of fixed income strategy for Bel Air Investments, joins Bond Buyer senior reporter Keeley Webster and discusses why his firm, primarily invested in California debt, has veered away from California GOs and public works revenue bonds in favor of agency, school district and local government debt.

The muni market enters the last quarter of 2024 in "excellent shape," said GW&K Investment Management partners John Fox, Brian Moreland, Kara South and Martin Tourigny.

Supply ramps up this week to an estimated $13.361 billion, with several billion-dollar pricings on tap.

Florida will use its own cash, not from a refunding bond, to buy up to $500 million of bonds tendered.

Municipal triple-A yield curves played catch up to USTs Friday to close out a week of more mixed economic data that has economists constantly reevaluating their Federal Reserve policy expectations with little consensus.

Municipal bond insurers wrapped $28.921 billion in the first three quarters 2024, a 26.8% increase from the $22.814 billion insured in the first three quarters of 2023, according to LSEG data.

Wells Fargo Head of Municipal Markets Strategy Vikram Rai said on Monday that Illinois' bonds are underappreciated as he released a report on the state.

Municipal investors can expect just shy of $10 billion of new issues from which to choose the first full week of October and the fourth quarter, led by a $1.5 billion taxable general obligation bond offering from New York City. Connecticut is bringing $935 million of general obligation bonds.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows of $1.879 billion in the latest week, marking the 14th consecutive week of inflows and the highest level of 2024, per LSEG data, reiterating the strong investor support for this market.

This surge in demand "is no coincidence — it's the result of weeks of relentless inflows, further amplified by the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut," said 16Rock Asset Management CIO James Pruskowski.

The biggest theme within the muni market — and what is responsible for its performance — is the amount of cash on the sidelines, with $6-plus trillion in money market funds and close to $2.5 trillion in certificates of deposits, said Julio Bonilla, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Schroders.

Through the integration, Investortool's clients can calculate analytics based on predictive trade levels, filter the live market based on "what's rich or what's cheap" compared to the predictive price and power automation, said James Morris, senior vice president at Investortools.

With supply ballooning, reinvestment dollars at lows of the year, J.P. Morgan's Peter DeGroot argues the next few weeks could offer the best opportunity to buy bonds of the year – and possibly the rate cycle. DeGroot talks about this, plus potential impacts of shifting investor behavior on market liquidity, and what the upcoming election might mean for tax policy and the muni market. Lynne Funk hosts.

Disruption was on the minds of those gathered in Chicago last week for MuniTech, a conference billed as a magnet for the "tech-forward" in public finance.