Buy side

"If the GOP wins the House, the specter of risk to the municipal bond tax-exemption will increase," said Edwin Oswald, a tax partner at Orrick Herrington & Sutcliffe in Washington D.C.

"A victory for former President Trump is likely to be viewed as ushering in a more inflationary environment, whereas a win for Vice President Harris will probably be seen as closer to the status quo," said Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management."

Investors should "brace themselves" for further volatility, as uncertainty is likely to remain, said Tom Kozlik, managing director and head of public policy and municipal strategy at HilltopSecurities.

October's "price path has created wider spreads but also brought higher yields that are now in the range where a broader audience may begin to take notice," said NewSquare Capital Senior Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Kim Olsan, noting higher taxable equivalent yields for different tenors of the yield curve.

Nearly $1 billion of outstanding BABs may still be called back before yearend.

Oppenheimer's Head of Public Finance Beth Coolidge and Columbus Auditor Megan Kilgore delve into the future of public finance and human infrastructure on a wide range of topics, from affordable housing and workforce development to public health, climate resiliency, and digital access.

The correction to the municipal market has improved muni to UST ratios while uncertainty hangs over ahead of the election. J.P. Morgan's Peter DeGroot said the firm expects the end of next week "will mark the end of the difficult technical period in 2024 and believe that net supply in November will lead to better valuations broadly in the municipal market."

Several macro trends have converged to drive growth in municipal bond issuance, said participants at The Bond Buyer's California Public Finance conference.

The event went on as scheduled Tuesday against a backdrop of escalating conflict between the mayor and controller, with each requesting a probe of the other.

"Coming off rich muni-Treasury ratios, the market has swiftly repriced," said 16Rock Asset Management's James Pruskowski. "With now cheaper benchmark yields and wider credit spreads, fresh capital is flowing in, and a strong bottoming opportunity looks to be emerging."

As technology options grow, firms are looking for ways to streamline and scale workflows.

Despite this week's underperformance, exempt investment-grade munis continue to outperform taxable sectors.

Craig Brothers, partner, portfolio manager and co-head of fixed income strategy for Bel Air Investments, joins Bond Buyer senior reporter Keeley Webster and discusses why his firm, primarily invested in California debt, has veered away from California GOs and public works revenue bonds in favor of agency, school district and local government debt.

The muni market enters the last quarter of 2024 in "excellent shape," said GW&K Investment Management partners John Fox, Brian Moreland, Kara South and Martin Tourigny.

Supply ramps up this week to an estimated $13.361 billion, with several billion-dollar pricings on tap.

Florida will use its own cash, not from a refunding bond, to buy up to $500 million of bonds tendered.

Municipal triple-A yield curves played catch up to USTs Friday to close out a week of more mixed economic data that has economists constantly reevaluating their Federal Reserve policy expectations with little consensus.

Municipal bond insurers wrapped $28.921 billion in the first three quarters 2024, a 26.8% increase from the $22.814 billion insured in the first three quarters of 2023, according to LSEG data.

Wells Fargo Head of Municipal Markets Strategy Vikram Rai said on Monday that Illinois' bonds are underappreciated as he released a report on the state.

Municipal investors can expect just shy of $10 billion of new issues from which to choose the first full week of October and the fourth quarter, led by a $1.5 billion taxable general obligation bond offering from New York City. Connecticut is bringing $935 million of general obligation bonds.