Bond volume

Monthly new-issue volume surpassed the $30 billion mark for the fourth time this year in August, helping keep third-quarter issuance close to last year's pace and potentially setting the stage for a more robust season of issuance in the Fall.

Issuance was down 27% in the region from the first half of 2017, and almost 30% in California, its largest market.

The region's volume numbers were supported by favorable market conditions that drove several large gas prepay deals.

Volume was off in eight of the region's 11 states in the wake of tax reform and the end of advance refundings.

Bond volume in the region fell sharply in the first half of 2018, though one expert saw the 16% drop as better than anticipated.

Municipal bond volume is running 18.1% lower than last year’s historic level, in line with analyst expectations given the enormous impact the new tax legislation has had on the market.

Northeast municipal bond issuance sank 11.7% in the first half of 2018 compared to a year earlier, reflecting a national trend driven by federal tax changes.

For the first time this year, the municipal bond market generated more volume than it did in the same month of 2017, as July issuance edged 1.3% higher.

The summer lull, trade policy, the Fed, and the lack of a federal infrastructure plan all weigh against a recovery in muni volume this year.

Municipal volume isn't expected to meet growing demand in the remainder of 2018.