FOMC

The Investment Company Institute reported investors pulled $246 million out of muni bond mutual funds in the week ending July 27 compared to the $602 million of outflows in the previous week.

St. Louis Fed Bank President James Bullard said he favors a strategy of "front-loading" big interest-rate hikes, and he wants to end the year at 3.75% to 4%, while his Richmond counterpart, Thomas Barkin, said the central bank was committed to lowering inflation and a recession could happen.

Federal Reserve officials said they want strong evidence that the hottest inflation in four decades is on a sustainable downward path before declaring victory in their fight against it.

The day after the Federal Open Market Committee's next meeting we will analyze the increase and the signals about what rate hikes may be coming.

The large primary was led by two $700-plus million of revenue bonds from the Port of Seattle and the Georgia Ports Authority.

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the central bank is committed to doing what’s necessary to bring down demand in order to reach policy makers’ 2% long-term inflation goal, a target that remains far off.

Municipals will end July with positive returns across all sectors. The Bloomberg Municipal Index shows a 2.49% return in July, moving year-to-date losses lower to 6.71%.

Total July volume was $25.598 billion in 520 deals versus $37.573 billion in 1,013 issues a year earlier, according to Refinitiv data.

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said he was concerned the Federal Reserve is still engaging in “wishful thinking” about how much it will take to bring inflation down from four-decade highs.

Investors added $236.491 million to municipal bond mutual funds, per Refinitiv Lipper data, versus the $698.782 million of outflows the week prior. High-yield saw inflows hit nearly $550 million.

Municipals are poised to end July in the black. Demand for muni product has been strong this summer, with analysts expecting supportive market technicals through August with a likely continuation of positive performance.

With the Fed committed to fighting inflation with aggressive rate hikes, fewer issuers want to take the risk with taxable advance refundings.

Investors sit on the sidelines, waiting to see how much the Fed will hike rates. The consensus appears to be another 75 basis point rate hike, though a full point hike could be on the table.

With the Fed rate decision coming this week, issuers are sitting on the sidelines in both primary and secondary Monday with little changed yield curves.

The Federal Reserve’s Inspector General said Chair Jerome Powell and former Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s trading activity had not broken any laws or rules, but the probe into the former heads of the Dallas and Boston regional Fed banks remained open.

Waller is the first Fed policy maker to explicitly express openness to an increase larger than 75 basis points at the July meeting.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said “everything is in play” for policy action after data showed that U.S. inflation accelerated again to a fresh four-decade high last month.

Primary market takes focus for large revenue deals from the New York State Thruway Authority and the Colorado Health Facilities Authority.

“I am one of the guys who like the option value of deciding the week of the meeting as opposed to two weeks before the meeting,” he told reporters Tuesday.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said the U.S. economy can cope with higher interest rates and repeated his support for another jumbo move when the central bank meets later this month.