Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for patience amid uncertainty over the Trump administration's policies, saying there would be no immediate rate changes but that the Fed would proceed carefully.

Mike Goosay, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at Principal Asset Management, breaks down the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Chair Powell's press conference and the SEP.

Inflation is front and center this week, with the consumer price index report released on Wednesday and the producer price index on Thursday.

Investors added $741.7 million to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ending Wednesday, following $2.078 billion of inflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data.

State and local governments are on strong financial footing and are investing in Treasury securities as chaotic federal moves shake out.

Even with the possibility of inflation and fiscal policy-induced headwinds, there is much to be optimistic about in the muni market, despite some possible near-term turbulence, said GW&K strategists.

The Fed meets this week, but the probability of another cut at Wednesday's meeting seems low amid elevated inflation and growth data, said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

"There are a lot of moving parts here with the potential to either help or hinder the Fed's quest for price stability and maximum employment" this year, noted BMO Deputy Chief Economist Michael Gregory, who says the Fed will "stand pat."

The Fed may make more cuts and there's a floor forming under the Treasury market, per panelists at the Executives' Club of Chicago's Annual Economic Outlook.

Municipals are underperforming USTs month-to-date, with the Bloomberg Municipal Index showing losses of 1.02% versus 0.92% for USTs as of Tuesday, but both are outperforming losses in corporates that are seeing 1.23% losses in January.

The muni market also faces an elevated new-issue calendar, which may put additional pressure on muni yields. Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply sits at $17.57 billion.

Sizable deals for next week include $1.3 billion of real estate transfer tax revenue bonds from the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority and $996.335 million of second series revenue bonds from the San Francisco International Airport.

The Federal Reserve will be more cautious and slow rate cuts going forward, according to minutes of the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting, released Wednesday.

The Federal Open Market Committee cut the fed funds target again in December but signaled fewer cuts in 2025. There was some dissent. The markets are watching to see if the Federal Reserve pauses its easing cycle in January. Brian Rehling, head of global fixed-income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, recaps and parses the previous day's FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

Analysts are unsure what the Federal Open Market Committee will do with monetary policy in 2025. The panel projects two rate cuts, but some analysts expect more, and others see fewer.

Munis "continued their slide" last week as yields rose an average of 23 basis points across the curve as the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the Fed will take a "more cautious approach" on interest rate cuts next year, said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

"Munis are grappling with a storm of uncertainty," said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

As the market prepares for 2025, there's a lot of uncertainty around what the new administration will mean for the macroeconomic environment and interest rates, the latter of which may be impacted by policy around the deficit, said Steve Shutz, portfolio manager and director of tax-exempt fixed income at Brown Advisory.

With investors now anticipating Wednesday's expected rate cut may be the last one for a while, "an overall bullish paradigm has been seriously weakened," noted Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics, Inc.

A week ahead of inauguration day, Scott Colbert, executive vice president, director of fixed income and chief economist at Commerce Trust, takes a look at how the Federal Reserve and the economy will fare in President-elect Donald Trump's second run in the White House.