Projections Suggest Natural Rate of 1% or Less

Using Congressional Budget Office estimates for gross domestic product suggests that for the next decade the natural rate of interest, also known as r-star, will be around 1%, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco research adviser.

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The CBO sees 2% GDP growth, which would "imply a long-run r-star value of around 1% or less." research adviser Kevin J. Lansing writes in the San Francisco Fed's Economic Letter. "Current estimates of r-star are near zero. The CBO's projection of a gradual rise in potential growth over the next 10 years implies a similar gradual rise in r-star. If these projections are accurate, then a monetary policy designed to track the rise in r-star would imply a very gradual normalization of the federal funds rate," he writes.


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