The composite index of leading economic indicators grew 0.8% in May, the Conference Board reported Friday.
The coincident index grew 0.1% in May, after an unrevised 0.1% gain in April, while the lagging index rose 0.5% after a revised 0.3% increase in April, originally reported as a 0.4% gain.
The LEI slid a revised 0.4% in May, originally reported as a 0.3% dip.
The LEI stands at 114.7, the coincident index is at 102.9, and the lagging index is at 109.1.
The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2004.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted the LEI would be up 0.2%.
“Modest economic growth is being buffeted by some strong headwinds, including high gas and food prices and a soft housing market,” said board economist Ken Goldstein. “The economy will likely continue to grow through the summer and fall, however it will be choppy.”
“The U.S. LEI rebounded in May and resumed its upward trend with a majority of the components supporting this gain,” according to board economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “The coincident index, a monthly measure of current economic conditions, continued to increase slowly but steadily. Overall, despite short-term volatility, the composite indexes still point to expanding economic activity in the coming months.”
Eight of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in May: interest rate spread, index of consumer expectations, building permits, real money supply, manufacturers’ new orders for nonmilitary capital goods, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, stock prices, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials.
The index of supplier deliveries was negative. Average weekly manufacturing hours held steady.
The coincident index saw increases in personal income less transfer payments, employees on non-agricultural payrolls, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production.
The lagging index saw positives from commercial and industrial loans outstanding, change in the consumer price index for services, and change in labor cost per unit of output.
Average duration of unemployment was negative. The average prime rate charged by banks, ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income, and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were flat in the month.