NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators gained 1.4% in March, its twelfth straight gain, the Conference Board reported today.
LEI increased a revised 0.4% in February, originally reported as a 0.1% rise.
The coincident index was up 0.1% in March, after an unrevised 0.1% increase in February, while the lagging index rose 0.2% after a revised 0.1% jump in February, originally reported as a 0.3% hike.
The LEI stands at 109.6, the coincident index is 100.2 and the lagging index is at 107.9.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 1.0% in the month.
“The U.S. LEI has risen steadily for a year now and it, and its six-month growth rate has remained fairly stable in recent months – led by improvements in financial and labor market indicators,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “Payroll employment made its first substantial contribution to the coincident economic index, suggesting a recovery that is beginning to gain traction.”
“The indicators point to a slow recovery that should continue over the next few months,” the Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein said, “The leading, coincident and lagging series are rising. Strength of demand remains the big question going forward. Improvement in employment and income will be the key factors in whether consumers push the recovery on a stronger path.”
Seven of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in March: interest rate spread, average weekly manufacturing hours, index of supplier deliveries, stock prices, building permits, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials. Real money supply, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, index of consumer expectations and were negative.
The coincident index saw employees on non-agricultural payrolls, personal income less transfer payments, industrial production, and manufacturing and trade sales rise in the month.
The lagging index saw positives from commercial and industrial loans outstanding, change in labor cost per unit of output, and change in CPI for services. Average duration of unemployment, and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income were negative. Average prime rate charged by banks and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were flat in the month.
