NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators gained 1.1% in December, its ninth straight gain, the Conference Board reported today.
LEI increased a revised 1.0% in November, originally reported as a 0.9% increase.
The coincident index was up 0.1% in December, after a revised 0.1% rise in November, originally reported as a 0.2% gain, while the lagging index fell 0.2% after a revised 0.5% decline in November, originally reported as a 0.4% drop.
The LEI stands at 106.4, the coincident index is 99.9 and the lagging index is at 108.5.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.7% in the month.
“The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased sharply in December and has risen steadily for nine consecutive months,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “The six-month growth rate has picked up slightly to 5.2% (about a 10.8% annual rate) in the period through December, substantially higher than earlier in the year. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained very widespread in recent months.”
“The indicators point to an economy in early recovery,” the Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein said, “The coincident economic index shows slow expansion of economic activity through December. The leading economic index suggests that the pace of improvement could pick up this spring.”
Eight of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in December: interest rate spread, building permits, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, stock prices, index of consumer expectations, index of supplier deliveries, money supply, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods. Average workweek of production workers, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials were flat.
The coincident index saw industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales rise in the month. Employees on non-agricultural payrolls was negative.
The lagging index saw a positive from change in labor cost per unit of output. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, average duration of unemployment, and the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income were negative. The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales, change in CPI for services, and average prime rate charged by banks were flat in the month.
