NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators gained 0.3% in January, its tenth straight gain, the Conference Board reported today.
LEI increased a revised 1.2% in December, originally reported as a 1.1% increase.
The coincident index was up 0.2% in January, after a revised flat level in December, originally reported as a 0.1% gain, while the lagging index fell 0.1% after a revised 0.3% decline in December, originally reported as a 0.2% drop.
The LEI stands at 107.4, the coincident index is 100.1 and the lagging index is at 108.0.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.5% in the month.
“The U.S. LEI has risen steadily for nearly a year, led by an improvement in financial markets and a manufacturing upturn,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “Consumer expectations and housing permits have also contributed to these gains over this period, but to a lesser extent - especially in recent months. Current economic conditions, as measured by the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index, have also improved modestly since July 2009, helped by strengthening industrial production, despite continued weakness in employment.”
“The cumulative change in the U.S. LEI over the past six months has bee a strong 9.8% annualized,” the Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein said, “This signals continued economic recovery at least through the spring.”
Five of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in January: interest rate spread, index of supplier deliveries, average weekly manufacturing hours, stock prices, and index of consumer expectations. Real money supply, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods were negative. Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials was flat.
The coincident index saw industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales rise in the month. Employees on non-agricultural payrolls was negative.
The lagging index saw positives from change in labor cost per unit of output, and change in CPI for services. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, average duration of unemployment, ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were negative. Average prime rate charged by banks was flat in the month.
