NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators gained 0.1% in February, its eleventh straight gain, the Conference Board reported today.
LEI increased an unrevised 0.3% in January.
The coincident index was up 0.1% in February, after a revised unchanged reading in January, originally reported as a 0.2% gain, while the lagging index rose 0.3% after a revised 0.2% decline in January, originally reported as a 0.1% drop.
The LEI stands at 107.6, the coincident index is 100.1 and the lagging index is at 108.0.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.1% in the month.
“The LEI for the U.S. has risen rapidly for almost a year now and it has reached its highest level,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “But, the sharp pick up in the LEI appears to be stabilizing. As the economy moves from recovery into early phases of an expansion, the leading economic index points to moderately improving economic conditions in the near term. Correspondingly, the coincident economic index has been rising since July 2009, albeit slightly because of continued weakness in employment.”
“The indicators point to a slow recovery this summer,” the Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein said, “Going forward, the big question remains the strength of demand. Without increased consumer demand, job growth will likely be minimal over the next few months.”
Four of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in February: interest rate spread, real money supply, index of supplier deliveries, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials. Average weekly manufacturing hours, stock prices, index of consumer expectations, building permits, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance were negative.
The coincident index saw personal income less transfer payments, industrial production, and manufacturing and trade sales rise in the month. Employees on non-agricultural payrolls was negative.
The lagging index saw positives from change in labor cost per unit of output, average duration of unemployment, and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding was negative. Average prime rate charged by banks, change in CPI for services, and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were flat in the month.
