NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators grew 0.8% in February, the Conference Board reported Thursday.
The coincident index grew 0.2% in February, after a revised 0.3% gain in January, originally reported as a 0.1% increase, while the lagging index rose 0.2% after a revised 0.3% decrease in January, originally reported as a 0.1% dip.
LEI rose an unrevised 0.1% in January.
The LEI stands at 113.4, the coincident index is at 102.5 and the lagging index is at 108.0. The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2004.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 1.0% in the month.
“Latest data point to an improving economy, one that will continue to gain strength through the summer,” said the Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. “The economy continues to encounter strong headwinds. One headwind is the sharp rise in food and energy prices. Still, the way inflation will move is unclear, given the degree of slack in the overall economy, especially in the labor market.”
“With February’s large gain, the U.S. LEI returned to the strengthening upward trend that began last September,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “The LEI is pointing to an economic expansion that should gain more momentum in the coming months. In February, improvements in labor markets, financial components, and consumer expectations more than offset falling housing permits.”
Eight of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in February: interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, stock prices, real money supply, average weekly manufacturing hours, index of consumer expectations, index of supplier deliveries, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials. Building permits and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods were negative.
The coincident index saw employees on nonagricultural payrolls, personal income less transfer payments, industrial production, and manufacturing and trade sales all rise in the month.
The lagging index saw positives from commercial and industrial loans outstanding, change in CPI for services, and change in labor cost per unit of output. Ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income, and average duration of unemployment were negative. Average prime rate charged by banks, and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were flat in the month.
