The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators added 0.1% in May following a revised 0.8% increase in April, first reported as a 0.6% gain, the Conference Board reported Thursday.
The coincident index gained 0.2% in May after an unrevised 0.1% rise in April, while the lagging index rose 0.3% after an unrevised 0.1% gain in April.
The LEI stands at 95.2, the coincident index is at 105.6 and the lagging index is at 118.6 The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2004.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.2% in the month.
"Growth will depend on continued improvement in the housing market and an easing of consumer and business caution which would allow overall consumption and investment to gain traction," said the Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. "Cutbacks in public spending programs and the drag from foreign trade remain headwinds."
"Despite month-to-month volatility, the LEI's six-month growth rate remains steady, suggesting that conditions in the economy remain resilient," said the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. "Widespread gains in the leading indicators over the last six months suggest there is some upside potential for economic activity in the second half of the year."
Three of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in May: interest rate spread, stock prices, and Leading Credit Index (inverted). The ISM new orders index, building permits, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft were negative. Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials, average consumer expectations for business conditions, and average weekly manufacturing hours were flat in the month.
The coincident index saw personal income less transfer payments, employees on nonagricultural payrolls, and manufacturing and trade sales rise in the month. Industrial production was steady.
The lagging index saw positives from commercial industrial loans outstanding, ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income, change in CPI for services, and ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales. Average duration of unemployment (inverted) and change in index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. and were negative. Average prime rate charged by banks was unchanged in the month.
