NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.3% in April, the Conference Board reported Thursday.
The coincident index grew 0.1% in April, after an unrevised 0.2% gain in March, while the lagging index rose 0.5% after a revised 0.3% increase in March, originally reported as a 0.4% gain.
LEI rose a revised 0.7% in March, originally reported as a 0.4% jump.
The LEI stands at 114.0, the coincident index is at 102.8 and the lagging index is at 108.8. The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2004.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.1% in the month.
“The economy has been growing moderately and delivering some new jobs,” said the Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. “The U.S. LEI was rising strongly – up sharply in four of the five months through March – but slipped in April. Economic growth will likely continue through the summer and fall, but the pace of economic activity may be choppy.”
“The U.S. LEI has been rising since March 2009, with only a brief one-month interruption in June 2010, and now, in April 2011,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “The U.S. CEI a monthly measure of current economic conditions, continued to increase, supported by improving employment figures. Overall, the composite indexes still point to strengthening business conditions in the near term, although the path may be uneven.”
Four of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in April: interest rate spread, index of consumer expectations, stock prices, and real money supply. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, index of supplier deliveries, building permits, average weekly manufacturing hours, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials were negative.
The coincident index saw employees on nonagricultural payrolls, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales all rise in the month. Industrial production was flat.
The lagging index saw positives from commercial and industrial loans outstanding, average duration of unemployment, change in labor cost per unit of output, and change in CPI for services. Ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income was negative. Average prime rate charged by banks, and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were flat in the month.
