NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators gained 0.9% in November, its eighth straight gain, the Conference Board reported today.
LEI increased an unrevised 0.3% in October.
The coincident index was up 0.2% in November, after an unrevised unchanged reading in October, while the lagging index fell 0.4% after an unrevised 0.2% decline in October.
The LEI stands at 104.9, the coincident index is 100.1 and the lagging index is at 108.7.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.7% in the month.
“The Conference Board LEI has been on an uptrend for more than half a year and is now slightly higher than its latest peak in July 2007,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “Improving financial conditions, labor market indicators and housing permits have helped the Lei continue its gains in November. However, its six-month growth rate has slowed somewhat in recent months.”
“The indicators point to a bright new year,” the Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein said, “The U.S. LEI increased for the eighth consecutive month. Looking ahead, we can expect a slowly improving economy through 2010. The conference Board coincident economic index for the U.S. also increased in November. Employment largely held steady, making this the first month since December 2007 that it did not make a negative contribution to the index.”
Six of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in November: interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, stock prices, and real money supply. Index of consumer expectations, index of supplier deliveries, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods were negative in the month. Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials was flat.
The coincident index saw industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales rise in the month. Employees on non-agricultural payrolls was unchanged.
The lagging index saw positives from change in labor cost per unit of output and change in CPI for services. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, average duration of unemployment, and the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income were negative. The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales and average prime rate charged by banks was flat in the month.
