The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June climbed to positive 0.16 from negative 0.56 in May, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) narrowed to negative 0.12 from negative 0.39 in May, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Thursday.
In June 2015, the index was negative 0.09, while the CFNAI-MA3 was negative 0.08 in that month.
The reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was slightly below its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, narrowed to negative 0.16 from a negative 0.38 reading the month before. A year ago, the diffusion index was negative 0.03.
The production indicators added 0.18 to CFNAI in the month (compared to a subtraction of 0.29 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators contributed 0.06 in the month, after a 0.14 subtraction in May, the Fed said.
Personal consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.08 in the month, after subtracting 0.08 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories were neutral in the month after taking 0.04 from the index in March.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by July 19, with data for 50 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 40 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 45 made negative contributions. While 58 indicators were better than the previous month, 19 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 27 deteriorated from May to June.
