Observers say growing problems at the Federal Emergency Management Agency are pressuring state and local governments.
With Louisiana and Florida gaining the most and second-most FEMA public assistance grants since 2003 and many other Southeastern states also gaining substantial sums, according to Carnegie Disaster Dollar Database, the troubles at FEMA disproportionately impact the Southeast.
New problems have been added to the various issues that troubled the agency last year and existing problems have intensified, analysts say.
President Trump announced the departure of Kristi Noem as secretary of FEMA's parent agency, the Department of Homeland Security, on March 5. Since then he has nominated Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R.-Okla., as her replacement.
Mullin "appears to be a pragmatist but he is also a loyalist," said John Hallacy, president of John Hallacy Consulting.
The question for Mullin will be, what he will "bring to the table…. What will be the criteria for future disbursements?" Hallacy asked.
"We also know that there is keen interest in cutting FEMA's budget and returning responsibilities to the states. Will funds be allocated in accordance with red state and blue state alignments? We will learn of these matters as the approval process works its way through the system," Hallacy said.
"You can see the impact of [FEMA's] failing policies," said Joseph Krist, publisher of Muni Credit News. "In North Carolina, the failures of FEMA have definitely played a part in the race for [retiring Sen.] Thom Tillis' seat. There was real irony that for all the talk, the money held up most impacted so-called red states."
Authorization for much Department of Homeland Security funding lapsed Feb. 14 because Republican and Democratic lawmakers couldn't agree on reforms for the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which is part of the department.
In late February and early March,
"It's very concerning that FEMA's Disaster Relief Fund is running low and that
"Typically, FEMA is able to withstand these types of dips in the DRF but we're not talking [about] normal times. Former Secretary Noem has left a skeleton of an agency and as the Atlantic Hurricane season approaches, this is not the time for Congress to be playing political football with FEMA's budget," she said.
"There is no end in sight to the disagreement on the DHS budget," Hallacy said. "It is not surprising that FEMA funds are on the wane. We are opting for future chaos and heated debates about which events deserve some funding. Any modicum of liquidity is key."
As of Wednesday the standoff between Republicans and Democrats seemed unlikely to be resolved in the coming days.
Starting in June, Noem mandated she personally approve all spending of $100,000 or more in the department, according to a
"In the short run, relieving the backlog of delayed payments from FEMA is job one," Krist said. "That is true both practically as well as politically. Longer run it depends on the elections and control of Congress. It also depends on whether the mainland can dodge serious storms two summers in a row.
"Immediately, funding FEMA will be part of the overall DHS funding compromise in Congress that has to be reached soon," Krist said. "It will just be a short-term fix. Yes, it will speed up. It can't go more slowly. Funding from FEMA is important both as a direct source of funding but also as a catalyst for stimulating economic activity."
The financial capacity of states, cities, and counties to respond to disasters and reduce risk varies, said Zoe Middleton, associate policy director of just climate resilience at Union of Concerned Scientists. "In the face of increasingly severe weather, communities deserve to know that every level of government is prepared to respond, get them on the road to recovery and help reduce risk. Speeding up federal funding flows is critical to helping communities recover and adapt but right now budget offices lack clarity or confidence in their ability to pull down federal funding," she said.
"State and local leaders must integrate this uncertainty into their budget planning — updating disaster reserve strategies accordingly," Middleton continued. "This won't be an easy task given the end of the American Rescue Plan Act funds and the ripple effect of cuts from President Trump's One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act but it's especially important in places like Louisiana, Texas and Florida with high disaster risk."
Peyton Siler Jones, founding principal at Siler Consulting, said the backlog of FEMA disaster funds
"Delays in these payments have real and meaningful impact on many peoples' day-to-day lives. It is critically important that FEMA release the disaster funds to states in order to support local governments, including cities, in accessing the financial resources they need to recover from disasters that are more frequent and intense in the context of climate change," she said.
"Whether or not Sen. Mullin speeds up disaster related spending at FEMA largely depends on how willing he is to deviate from President Trump's playbook of weaponizing extreme weather response and recovery and put the safety of communities and the stability of state and local economies first," Middleton said.
Hallacy said, "The approval process should be streamlined. These are crisis scenarios that are being addressed. Waiting for funding is not an option for a prolonged period. States and localities that are affected may find themselves in a scenario that at a minimum some short term borrowing may be necessary.
"Longer term plans would still require some determination of any FEMA funding that would be available," Hallacy said. "I do not see an easy path forward."
Udvardy said, "Recent reports find that global warming is accelerating and the impacts are playing out before our eyes with more frequent and intense extreme weather and climate change-related disasters.
"We do know that the president's intent is to shift responsibility for disaster response and recovery onto shoulders of state, local, tribal and territorial governments," Udvardy said.
"There's this Catch-22 in which states and local governments need to invest in climate adaptation to be more resilient to climate change but much of the funding they rely on comes from the federal government," Udvardy said. "Yet the Trump administration is changing policies on the fly… [Many state and local governments] don't have the resources to cover this level of funding, leaving a financial and resilience gap that can't be solved overnight."
Geoffrey Buswick, managing director at S&P Global Ratings, said, "At this time, it's too early to tell how [Noem's] departure will affect FEMA, disaster management and its related funding and financing. Based on previous information, we continue to believe that the [Trump] administration may declare fewer disasters and FEMA may be less supportive with recovery funds, although details are still scarce."
Dan Seymour, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody's Ratings, said in October, "If FEMA changes its policies to reduce federal funding for recovery from major natural disasters,
FEMA didn't respond to inquiries for this story.
