NEW YORK – The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index (ETI) rose 1.8% to 90.8 in November, from a revised 0.6% jump to 89.2 in October, originally reported as a 0.7% increase to 89.3, and is down 9.4% from a year ago, the group announced today.
“The very small number of job losses in November was to be expected given the increase in the Employment Trends Index in recent months, and this month’s large increase in the ETI suggests that job gains are imminent,” said Gad Levanon, senior economist at The Conference Board. “However, the pace of hiring is likely to remain subdued because the economic recovery is expected to be weak throughout the first half of 2010," noted Levanon.
Five of the eight components of the index were better in November, The Conference Board said. The improving indicators were initial claims for unemployment insurance, number of temporary employees, job openings, industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales.
The ETI aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the ETI include: Percentage of respondents who say they find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey); Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor); Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation); Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics); Part-time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS); Job Openings (BLS); Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board); and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).
