Conf. Bd. September Confidence Index Falls to 48.5

NEW YORK - The consumer confidence index slipped to 48.5 in September from a downwardly revised 53.2 last month, The Conference Board reported this morning.

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The August index was originally reported as 53.5.

Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted the index would be 52.5.

The present situation index dropped to 23.1 from an unrevised 24.9, while the expectations index decreased to 65.4 from a downwardly revised 72.0 last month, originally reported as 72.5.

“September’s pull-back in confidence was due to less favorable business and labor market conditions, coupled with a more pessimistic short-term outlook,” said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. “Overall consumers’ confidence in the state of the economy remains quite grim. And, with so few expecting conditions to improve in the near term, the pace of economic growth is not likely to pick up in the coming months.”

Business conditions were called “good” by 8.1% of respondents in September, a decrease from 8.4% the prior month. Those saying conditions are “bad” rose to 46.1% from 42.3%.

The percentage of consumers expecting a pickup in business conditions in the next half year slid to 14.9% from 16.9%, while 16.4% said they expect conditions to worsen, up from 13.4% the prior month.

On the jobs front, those who believe jobs are “plentiful” dipped to 3.8% in September from 4.0% in August, while the number saying jobs are “hard to get” increased to 46.1% this survey from 45.5%. The respondents who see more jobs becoming available in a half year, slid to 14.5% from 14.7%. Those expecting fewer jobs to become available rose to 22.7% from 19.6%, The Conference Board reported.

Income expectations were mixed, with 10.2% of consumers anticipating an increase in their income in the next six months, down from the prior month's 10.6%, while 16.3% expect their income to decrease, down from 16.7% in the prior month’s survey.

The number of consumers who expected to buy a home in the next six months slipped to 1.9% from 2.1%, while the number of respondents planning to buy a car remained at 4.7%. More consumers than last month said they plan to buy a major appliance in the next six months (27.5% vs. 24.6%).

More respondents than last month (38.0% vs. 36.5%) expect to take a vacation in the next six months, but more said they would stay in the U.S. rather than leave the country. Cars rather than airplanes were the preferred mode of travel, by a 19.6%-16.6% margin.

The consumer confidence survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households for The Conference Board by TNS.


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