Anderson Forecast: California Infrastructure Needs Reinvention

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LOS ANGELES — Los Angeles Controller Ron Galperin attempted to blast a little sunshine into the UCLA Anderson Forecast's gloomy outlook for California's infrastructure needs at the Forecast's Wednesday event.

Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist for the UCLA Anderson Forecast, said in his forecast that California's infrastructure is in dire need of reinvention for the 21st Century. The Forecast's December 2014 outlook conference was titled:  "Parched Lawns, Severe Congestion and Flickering Lights: Rebuilding, Reinventing and Reimagining California's Infrastructure."

In his keynote speech, Galperin said data related to L.A'.s infrastructure portrays a good news/bad news scenario — and that he intended to highlight both.

While the Los Angeles International Airport, as noted in the UCLA Anderson forecast, has seen a 5% boost in passenger loads over the last few years, Galperin said many people who travel through the airport have a less than favorable experience.

A Bloomberg report ranked LAX as the 6th most frustrating airport to passengers and the 5th most difficult to access, Galperin said.

As for the city's water and power systems, Galperin said the systems are aging and showing the effects of deferred maintenance.

Of the city's 900,000 power poles, 95% are older than the planned life of 95 years. The city has 7,200 miles of water pipes currently on a replacement schedule of 315 years.

On the bright side, he said, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power has rates that are 10% to 25% less than nearby investor-owned utilities, it has a growing renewables portfolio and the water tastes good.

"Our pipes are not bursting at a rate greater than any other city in the world," Galperin said.

His words were probably not reassuring to the UCLA crowd that remembered when 20 million gallons of water flooded the campus after a DWP pipe burst in July, turning an indoor basketball court into a swimming pool.

Galperin also noted that 70% of the city's 540 bridges and tunnels have achieved a B or better grade, but 38% of the streets received a D or F rating.

Nickelsburg briefly outlined California Gov. Jerry Brown's five-year infrastructure proposal in his January 2014 budget that proposes $56.7 million be spent on infrastructure over the next five years, which doesn't include the $7.2 billion approved in November's election for water projects. Half of the January total will go to the state's $68 billion high speed rail and much toward rebuilding and refurbishing prisons, he said.

"The American Society of Civil Engineers does a report card," Nickelsburg said. "The good news is that we are doing better than the rest of the U.S.; the bad news is that the rest of the U.S. is doing horribly, so the bar is low."

The ACSE gave the state a "C" grade in its most recent report and estimates it needs to spend $65 billion a year on infrastructure over the next five years. The nation received a D-plus from ASCE and needs to spend $3.6 trillion by 2020 on its aging infrastructure.

With municipal rates where they have been, the states and the country could be borrowing to pay for infrastructure and they are not, said David Shulman, a UCLA Anderson senior economist.

"There has been a boom in the municipal bond market," Shulman said. "Creditors could borrow at 3% or less and the U.S. Treasury could borrow for 30 years at less than 3%."

Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, characterized borrowing money for infrastructure at such low rates as good borrowing.

"Every level of government should be thinking about infrastructure investing today, because the borrowing rates are so low," Leamer said.

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