Finance

Wednesday marked the first trading session that saw cuts more than a basis point or two in spots since last week's extended selloff.

"While there has been some reported buying by relative value institutions amid higher ratios from the muni-centric price correction, the market as a whole may not rally this week," said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

Municipals are little changed to start the week after last week's selloff, which saw muni yields cut up to 20 basis points out long.

March had been expected to be difficult due to a "combination of heavy supply, low redemptions, rate volatility, tax-related selling and now fund outflows," said Barclays strategists Mikhail Foux and Grace Cen.

S&P Global Ratings analysts said they reviewed their entire rated California public utility portfolio before giving seven negative outlooks.

A $150 million housing bonds with a taxable component is anticipated for May and $110 million higher education student loan bonds are also anticipated for that month.

After digit-double cuts out long Wednesday, muni yields rose an additional two to four basis points, depending on the curve, on Thursday.

"The supply/demand dynamic is a headwind for the muni market this week as supply is expected to be elevated," said Cooper Howard, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab.

"The ever-shifting narrative regarding President Trump's tariff policies is throwing fuel on the fire of unpredictability," said SWBC's Chris Brigati.

The BDA met last week ahead of the House Ways and Means launching talks on what the reconciliation tax package may include.

State Treasuer Brad Briner said he hopes a longer maximum maturity will lead more borrowers to use the state conduit instead of the Public Finance Authority.

The market rally "took a bit of a breather last week, with yields rising across the curve," said Daryl Clements, a portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein.

In 2017, the BDA hired a lobbying firm as Congress wrote a tax reform bill. This time, the group opted for a strategic communications firm.

"March is not an overly positive month for munis, but a lot will depend on U.S. Treasuries," said Barclays strategist Mikhail Foux.

The $550 million deal from an issuer with two triple-A ratings includes about $250 million for refunding and an $85 million taxable piece.

"Markets fixate on one risk at a time, and there's no shortage right now. Volatility has spiked, liquidity is thin, and buyers are sidelined — but that's temporary," said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

Issuance remains heavy this week, but while it's elevated, the muni market is "structurally undersupplied," meaning if 2024's record level of $500 billion-plus of issuance was doubled, the market could still digest it quite well, said Wesly Pate, a senior portfolio manager at Income Research + Management.

Short-end U.S. Treasuries rallied mid-morning, while UST yields were little changed out long, but ended the day weaker across most of the curve with the greatest losses out long. Munis were steady throughout the day.

S&P Global Ratings primarily cited a "precipitous decline" in unrestricted cash to explain its triple-notch downgrade of the system.

"Apathy and caution" were the theme of the past week, said Birch Creek strategists.