Jessica Lerner

For the coming week, investors will be greeted with a new-issue calendar estimated at $7.282 billion.

Municipal bond mutual fund outflows intensified as Refinitiv Lipper reported investors pulled $855.719 million from the funds for the week ending Wednesday following $25.331 million of outflows the week prior.

The Investment Company Institute reported investors pulled $136 million from municipal bond mutual funds in the week ending June 28, after $338 million of inflows the previous week.

"Lower volumes, lighter primary issuance, and heavier reinvestment cash flows are likely going to contribute to a continued bout of muni relative performance," said Birch Creek Capital strategists.

For the coming week, investors will be greeted with a new-issue calendar estimated at $304.5 million. This marks the lowest week of issuance in 2023.

Total volume for the month was $34.436 billion in 744 issues, down from $37.775 billion in 984 issues a year earlier, according to Refinitiv data.

Triple-A yields rose one to five basis points, depending on the scale, as secondary trading showed cheaper prints and some new-issues had to be cheapened to clear the market while USTs saw larger losses of up to 16 basis points on the three and five year.

With the first half of the year ending on Friday, municipal sources say the second half of the year will be off to a good start.

While supply has started to pick back up with an outsized primary market calendar this week, it's still not enough to meet demand, said Cooper Howard, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab.

Despite a slow start to the week, "buyers are becoming more constructive, and there's increased buying going on," said Pat Luby, a CreditSights strategist.

The $6.9 billion new-issue calendar features high-grade deals from Georgia, Washington and Massachusetts, among other frequently traded credits, which should provide direction for scales.

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Municipal bond mutual fund inflows returned as Refinitiv Lipper reported investors added $672.288 million for the week ending Wednesday following $256.532 million of outflows the week prior.

The Investment Company Institute reported investors added $16 million to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ending June 14, after $495 million of inflows the previous week.

Due to the Fed meeting-induced lighter new-issue calendar last week, and a holiday-shortened week this week, Birch Creek strategists said, "buyers had no qualms about putting cash to work."

Market participants agree issuance will not hit the highs seen in 2020 and 2021, but they are split on whether issuance will surpass the $384.086 billion of debt issued in 2022.

Investors will be greeted with a new-issue calendar estimated at $5.031 billion led by several New York issues.

Those "holding out for wider yields or relative value" are frustrated due to an extremely tight muni range, but FHN Financial's Kim Olsan said, "the reality is that supply has yet to materialize to force that change."

Munis did not follow USTs yet, "but given the outperformance of munis over the last couple days and while I wouldn't be surprised if they weaken a little given how expensive ratios are," said Breckinridge's Matt Buscone.

While "munis are set up for better performance, perhaps modest single-digit returns, the near-term outlook for fund flows will make for a challenging read," Oppenheimer's Jeff Lipton said.