Jessica Lerner

Muni yields were bumped up to eight basis points, depending on the curve, on Tuesday, but for most of last week, U.S. rates sold off on the heels of passed legislation, said Barclays strategists Mikhail Foux and Grace Cen.

"We're seeing some of the additional instability and other things come into play," said Dan Genter, CEO of Genter Capital Management.

Municipal bond insurers wrapped $7.316 billion in the first quarter of 2025, a 2.6% increase from the $7.132 billion insured in the first quarter of 2024, according to LSEG data.

"Light demand" for Wednesday's 20-year Treasury bond auction "propelled yields to the nosebleeds and equities to the basement," said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

The "risk to the tax exemption appears to have dropped sharply as of last week ... taking with it the hypothetical risk of a supply surge ahead of any end-date for borrowers' exemption access," said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

"Munis are no longer moving on headlines; they're reacting to rates and supply," which is playing out again Monday after a choppy March and April, said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

Municipals were cut up four basis points, depending on the curve, through noon.

Issuance for the week of May 19 is estimated at $11.667 billion.

At a Bond Buyer conference in Atlanta, industry leaders talked about tariff turmoil, the tax-exemption, weather resiliency, infrastructure and more. 

For most investors, partnership matters, said Jamie Doffermyre, head of public finance syndicate and origination at Truist Securities.

While April was a challenging month for muni performance, this summer will be a more supportive environment, said Mark Paris, chief investment officer and head of municipals at Invesco.

The muni market is recovering from tariff turmoil, and is more resilient than the day-to-day volatility suggests, Jamie Doffermyre of Truist Securities said.

Even with Monday's U.S.-China tariff truce and Tuesday's inflation print, the market has felt better over the past several weeks, said Jamie Iselin, managing director and head of municipal fixed income at Neuberger Berman.

Munis yields followed UST yields higher Monday, rising one to four basis points, depending on the scale, but the asset class outperformed USTs.

"In our view, the worst for munis is behind us, at least for now; tax-exempts might continue to outperform, but only to a degree as technicals will remain somewhat challenging," Barclays strategists said.

The recent firmness in the market has been "much appreciated," said Shannon Rinehart, senior portfolio manager of municipal debt at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

Muni yields remain attractive, said Tom Kozlik, managing director, head of public policy and municipal strategy at HilltopSecurities.

Following the Federal Reserve's meeting this week, where the Fed is expected to hold rates, Chairman Jerome Powell will try to serve up a "nothingburger," said Cooper Howard, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab.

Focus was on the primary market last week, with Birch Creek reporting that one dealer estimated that 90% of the focus earlier in the week was on new issues.

Hilltop currently ranks 19th year-to-date among managing underwriters of municipal bonds, underwriting $1.2 billion in 53 issues.