Jessica Lerner

"In theory at least, municipal yields should be able to stabilize here; levels remain attractive for pure income buyers while more sustainable constructive fund inflows are just enough to speak for rising issuance in the absence of meaningful reinvestment," said Matt Fabian, president of Municipal Market Analytics.

"If I wanted to target municipal finance, this would be a really good place for me to start," said Omid Rahmani, public finance cybersecurity lead at Fitch Ratings.

As the technical picture tends to turn "more favorable" during November and December, Birch Creek strategists believe "the wider new issue concessions brought about via the heavy new issue calendar will likely be rewarded."

The average weekly issuance is at least $10 billion, said John Flahive, head of investment solutions and co-head of municipal bonds at Insight Investment.

Municipals are impacted by fluctuating supply and demand influences more than most other markets, said Jeff Timlin, a partner at Sage Advisory.

The large issuance of munis this year, up 12.9% year-to-date, "disadvantaged" the asset class compared to other U.S. fixed income assets for a majority of 2025, said Pat Haskell, head of the municipal bond group at BlackRock.

Last week, the muni market saw a "slowdown in activity" after the asset class saw its best monthly performance in nearly two years, said Birch Creek strategists.

The Texas Transportation Finance Corp. leads the new-issue calendar with $1.739 billion of subordinate tier toll revenue and refunding bonds, followed by New York City with $1.5 billion of general obligation bonds.

Supply is expected to rebound in October, when BofA Securities estimates that issuance will reach $58 billion.

Sophisticated issuers and investors shared insights into how they navigate the complexities of the municipal bond market at The Bond Buyer Infrastructure event.

October has historically not been "particularly kind to the municipal market, as it tends to be one of the heavier supply months of the year," said Daryl Clements, a portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein.

The muni market may be shaken by a government shutdown, driving short-term volatility and wider spreads, said James Pruskowski, a public finance strategist.

Muni yields rose up to eight basis points, depending on the scale, with the largest losses again on the front-end of the curve.

The short-end correction has been "driven by a solid labor market report, which pushed Treasury yields higher as expectations for additional Fed rate cuts tempered," said Alice Cheng, director of municipal credit and investor strategy at Janney.

Munis have outperformed USTs and corporates by more than 1.0% month-to-date on the heels of this rally so far, BofA strategists said.

Munis saw cuts, albeit small ones, for the first time in nearly two weeks as yields rose up to four basis points, depending on the scale.

Capital Group joins a small, but growing number of shops that have added, or considered adding, muni ETFs to their model portfolios.

By the close, muni yields were bumped up to four basis points, depending on the curve, while UST yields rose two to five basis points.

"This was a much-needed rally as the long end struggled throughout the year, but now has been pushed back into positive territory," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Investors added $2.183 billion to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, following $623.3 million of inflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data.