Jessica Lerner

Municipal bond supply projections for next year range from a high of $750-plus billion to a low of $520 billion, with most firms expecting issuance to hover around $600 billion, easily surpassing 2025's record.

While muni returns moved lower last week, year-to-date returns still hover around 4%, said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Concerns about Brightline have dragged down performance in the high yield sector this year.

Issuers mostly avoided pricing deals in the previous weeks the Fed met this year, but that's not the case this week, said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights, and Wilson Lees, an analyst at the firm.

The tax-exempt muni market has performed "exceptionally well" so far this week, outperforming USTs, said J.P. Morgan strategists led by Peter DeGroot.

Robust issuance this year has contributed to muni underperformance relative to other asset classes, but it also has "improved after-tax relative value for investors in higher tax brackets," said Sam Weitzman of Western Asset.

This movement comes on the heels of muni yields remaining relatively unchanged throughout November.

November volume was $38.487 billion, up 51.1% from $25.47 billion in 2024. This is above November's 10-year average of $33.743 billion.

Preliminary November issuance figures are at $37.054 billion, up 45.5% year-over-year, according to LSEG.

"Dealer inventories have grown heavier throughout [November], which could put pressure on the market if supply reverts to its weekly average of over $10 billion," said Chris Brigati, CIO and managing director of SWBC, and Ryan Riffe, SVP of capital markets at the firm.

The funds supported new facilities and housing, helping address challenges Navajo Nation communities face, such as long-distance travel and limited access to health care.

"We do not expect any major weakness to take hold as the new issue calendar is beginning to dwindle with only two non-holiday or non-Federal Reserve weeks left in the year," said Birch Creek strategists.

Chicago went to market Wednesday with $454.37 million of STSC refunding bonds, amid heated budget talks. Goldman took down $75 million of the bonds.

The long-awaited jobs report paints a mixed picture for market participants: nonfarm payrolls increased by a greater-than-expected119,000 in September, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.

Flows into high-yield muni mutual funds had slowed over the past several weeks, and the past two weeks have seen outflows.

The market is in a bit of a lull right now as it braces for a deluge of economic data, which could spark volatility, said Jeff Timlin, a partner at Sage Advisory.

The muni market has "demonstrated more conviction with steady demand and appealing relative yields weighing on the long-end while shifting dynamics on the short-end have led to municipals selling-off," said Tim Iltz, fixed income credit and market analyst at HJ Sims.

For munis, the end of the shutdown helps steady the backdrop, said James Pruskowski, an investor and market strategist.

"Continuing yield stability ... suggests a comfortable market that, even with the shutdown apparently close to ending, may resist/lag potential price/yield changes in taxables," said Matt Fabian, president of Municipal Market Analytics.

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