Gary Siegel

With the Federal Reserve's hike pretty much expected, analysts will search for clues about future moves.

Munis were little changed while long UST improved and equities ended in the red after the FOMC raised the fed funds rate target 75bps to a range of 3% to 3.25% and members are leaning toward a rate of 4.4% by yearend.

While a full basis point increase will be discussed, analysts see the Fed increasing 75 basis points to a 3% to 3.25% range, with a split between those who say inflation is worsening and those that believe it peaked.

Investors will be greeted Tuesday with a larger new-issue calendar, estimated at $6.087 billion, up from total sales of $5.551 billion in the week of Aug. 29.

Outflows from municipal bond mutual funds increased as investors pulled $3.416 billion out of funds in the latest week, versus the $1.180 billion of outflows the prior week, according to Refinitiv Lipper data.

Don't expect much new information to come from Jackson Hole this year analysts say, as the data-dependent FOMC will rely on incoming economic numbers in September to decide the proper size rate hike.

John Luke Tyner, fixed income analyst at Aptus Capital Advisors, discusses yield curve inversion with Bond Buyer Managing Editor Gary Siegel. Tyner looks at recession possibilities and how the Federal Reserve’s actions will impact the economy, the yield curve and recession. (23 minutes)

Economists expect the FOMC to raise interest rates 75 basis points on Wednesday, although a full point hike could be on the table.

Daniel Berger, Senior Municipal Strategist at Refiniv Municipal Market Data, talks about what’s in store for the municipal bond market in the second half of this year. Are munis set to rally in the next few months? He looks at market volatility and talks about who holds muni bonds, bond fund outflows and discusses muni to Treasury ratios and the yield curve. Gary Siegel and Chip Barnett host. (15 minutes)

Monday's massive selloff contributed to investors pulling more out from the mutual fund complex. Exchange-traded funds saw $1 billion of outflows and high-yield investors yanked out $1.7 billion.

The 75 basis point hike, prompted partly by hotter-than-expected inflation data, is the largest since 1994.

Triple-A yield curves rose five to eight basis points. Volatility somewhat eased Tuesday as investors took pause ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Investors will be greeted Tuesday with a decrease in supply with the new-issue calendar estimated at $2.691 billion in $1.786 billion of negotiated deals and $904.9 million of competitive loans.

Municipals improved for the fifth session in a row with 10- and 30-year triple-A yields falling 30 basis points since Thursday. Connecticut priced $1 billion-plus of GOs and saw yields lowered in a repricing.

Investors pulled more from municipal bond mutual funds in the latest week, with Refinitiv Lipper reporting $2.446 billion of outflows, though that was down from $2.669 billion of outflows in the previous week.

Outflows continue with the Investment Company Institute reporting $6.167 billion pulled from muni bond mutual funds in the week ending May 4, up from $5.371 billion of outflows in the previous week. 

Munis again outperformed U.S. Treasuries. Participants note that municipal to Treasury ratios and nominal yield levels are “extremely attractive,” which is generating some renewed interest among the retail crowd.

Investors pulled more from municipal bond mutual funds in the latest week, with Refinitiv Lipper reporting $2.669 billion of outflows, though down from $2.875 billion of outflows in the previous week.

Outflows continue with the Investment Company Institute reporting $5.371 billion pulled from muni bond mutual funds in the week ending April 27. Exchange-traded funds saw inflows at $1 billion.

The municipal market was marked by some skittishness among investors on Tuesday as a new month gets underway.