Gary Siegel

Analysts look at whether the FOMC will bring the last rate hike in the cycle, whether recession is coming, and whether the Fed is making a policy mistake.

Much uncertainty remains as the second half of the year begins, with Federal Reserve rates, recession and inflation all still to be decided.

Analysts agree with the market that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold rates in a range of 5% to 5.25%, but guidance will suggest a future hike.

The CPI numbers coming in pretty much as expected "was a relief" to the markets, with the bond market rallying after the release, said Luke Bartholomew, senior economist at abrdn.

Still no clarity as the banking crisis adds to the difficulty of predicting an economy still feeling COVID impacts and uncertainty about the prospects for a recession.

The reverberations from the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures make the outcome of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting unpredictable.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank clouds the economic landscape and complicates monetary policy decisions but it's a long way off from the troubles banks and broker-dealers faced in the 2008 financial crisis.

The recent bank failures have changed market thinking about the Federal Reserve's next move.

Analysts opine on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, how high interest rates will go and when the first cut may happen.

"I think the bond market is right, a recession is coming," said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, "and the economic indicators reinforce that message."