Gary Siegel

Gilt-edged munis fell as much as two basis points Wednesday as the month ended and the first half stats were put into the record books.

A majority of the week's largest new issues priced at yields mostly at or around benchmarks as secondary trading did little to move scales. In economic data released Tuesday, the June consumer confidence index climbed, suggesting spending will rebound.

With various Federal Reserve officials airing their views since the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest meeting, it may take a while for members to reach agreement on tapering, a boon for municipals.

Triple-A benchmark yields moved higher by as much as five basis points while ICI reported another $1.8 billion of inflows and ETFs increase their share by $841 million.

After facing outside economic data pressures and rising U.S. Treasuries, municipals ended the week on solid footing ahead of a larger calendar with newly upgraded Connecticut leading with $1 billion of exempt and taxable GOs.

The municipal market largely ignored the FOMC news that it would hold rates steady. New Jersey was 20 times oversubscribed and ICI reported $2.5 billion of inflows into long-term municipal bond mutual funds.

Sub-1% 10-year municipals and low ratios may test investor appetite for the asset class but it is hard to ignore the strong fundamentals and substantial fund flows in the backdrop.

Jack Janasiewicz, senior vice president, portfolio manager and portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, discusses inflation and why there is disagreement on whether it will become an issue this year. He talks about how stimulus money and the employment situation factor in. Gary Siegel hosts. (Taped March 9 / 30 minutes).

The services sector showed improvement and employment made big gains in March, but economists note the labor market remains far from full employment.

Veneta Dimitrova, senior U.S. economist at Ned Davis Research, says the COVID pandemic showed us the government has more fiscal space than thought. She also discusses inflation, housing, the manufacturing sector, global supply chain challenges and the Fed’s balance sheet. Hosted by Gary Siegel. Taped Feb. 24. (32 minutes)

The primary led the secondary to lower yields as UST 10-year fell to lows last seen a week ago. Regional service sector surveys released Tuesday showed improvement, which feeds into the belief that inflation will rise in the near term.

Yields jumped as much as 10 basis points as new deals saw some concessions as munis played catch up to the run-up in U.S. Treasury rates after the 10-year hit 1.75% mid-session. Refinitiv Lipper reports nearly $1.3 billion of inflows.

Inflows return, stimulus set, new deals on fire — the municipal market reaped all the benefits. Initial jobless claims dropped more than expected in the week, as reopening continued slowly, but the total remains higher than any week before the COVID crisis hit.

Hank Smith, head of Investment Strategy at Haverford Trust, discusses the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the coronavirus pandemic, inflation, and economic growth. He says, “at some point the Fed will have to acknowledge the economy may really take off.” Gary Siegel hosts. (Taped March 2. 26 minutes)

The Investment Company Institute reported outflows from municipal bond mutual funds but inflows into exchange-traded funds. The February consumer price index came in as expected, while the core was below expectations, and analysts expect bigger rises ahead.

Despite the recent outflows and volatility of the Treasury market, municipal bonds have and should continue to outperform as stimulus from Washington provides some respite.

With the reset in yields in the rear view, valuations — especially relative to Treasury — will likely support continued robust demand.

Refinitiv Lipper reported $600 million of outflows from municipal bond mutual funds as the market correction caught up. High-yield funds lost a massive $722 million after $330 million a week prior.

The Beige Book suggests the economy is recovering, with optimism for 6-12 months ahead, while economists don't envision inflation rising enough for the Fed to take action any time soon.

Institutional pricing of New York City and competitive deals from Baltimore and Cambridge, Mass., should help give a sense of where yields are heading, while Ohio offers up GOs for a market that's been little changed for three days after a large sell-off.