Gary Siegel

Outflows continue but dropped significantly in the latest week with Refinitiv Lipper reporting $662 million of outflows from municipal bond mutual funds following $2.823 billion the week prior.

The Investment Company Institute on Wednesday reported another round of large outflows, this week at $3.502 billion, up from $2.647 billion of outflows in the previous week.

Secondary trading showed weaker prints, moving triple-A yields higher by three to seven basis points, outperforming larger losses in UST. California priced $2.2 billion of GOs for retail.

Market volatility has risen significantly, particularly in the last several weeks, with daily Treasury yield swings of 10 basis points or more becoming the norm with municipals struggling to stabilize.

Ongoing turmoil in the Ukraine is roiling markets, municipals included. Refinitiv Lipper reported more outflows, with high-yield seeing $818.218 million pulled out in the latest week.

The Investment Company Institute on Wednesday reported $2.637 billion of outflows in the week ending Feb. 23, down from $3.120 billion of outflows in the previous week.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine could slow interest rate hikes and has led the market to pull back on the chances of a 50-basis-point liftoff.

All markets, but particularly municipals, are in uncharted territory once again, with volatility amplified by the crisis in Ukraine and a still somewhat uncertain path for the Federal Reserve and inflation.

Between the long holiday weekend and investors trying to absorb the Russia-Ukraine developments, it was a slow start to the week in the municipal market.

The new-issue calendar for the holiday-shortened week is $4.98 billion, with $3.633 billion of negotiated deals and $1.347 billion of competitive loans.

Refinitiv Lipper reported outflows after inflows of $216 million the previous week.

Rates could go up faster than they did in 2015 if predictions for the economy hold, minutes from the FOMC said, but the release offered no hints as to whether a 50 basis point liftoff would be considered.

Municipal bonds' relative value has increased dramatically as rates have risen and credit fundamentals have improved, with municipal-to-Treasury ratios now on par with their five-year averages.

Inflation remains under market scrutiny, with Monday’s data suggesting consumers expect price pressures to cool later this year.

Municipal yields rose up to 10 basis points on the short end, playing catch up to the volatility of Treasuries' moves on Thursday. Rising UST rates will inevitably be more significant for munis until they settle into more stable levels.

Refinitiv Lipper reported the first inflows into municipal bond mutual funds at $216 million after three weeks of large outflows while high-yield saw small outflows. Exchange-traded funds reported $755 million of inflows.

Markets were somewhat comforted by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic’s comments suggesting the Fed will not be as aggressive as the markets suspect.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston announced Susan Collins, provost and executive vice president for academic affairs at the University of Michigan, will become its next president effective July 1.

The state of Washington sold $743 million of general obligation bonds in the competitive market at similar spreads to its November sale while some issuers have moved to the day-to-day calendar.

Washington will bring $742 million of general obligation bonds in competitive sales Tuesday, providing guidance for triple-A benchmark yields.