DALLAS – Voters in Virginia Beach, Va., are split almost evenly on a light rail proposal to appear on Tuesday's ballot that could generate up to $8.3 billion in real-estate development in the seacoast town.
The non-binding referendum would direct the city council to move ahead on a $243 million, 3.5-mile light rail extension of Hampton Road Transit's The Tide system that would extend into Virginia Beach.
The most recent poll found 49% of the residents opposed the rail extension with 48% in favor.
Tuesday's election will be the third time that Virginia Beach residents have voted on whether to participate in the regional rail line known as The Tide that is operated by Hampton Roads Transit.
A 1999 referendum failed with 56% opposed but in 2012 voters approved a resolution asking the city council to "use all reasonable efforts to support the financing and development" needed to bring rail to the city with 63% in favor.
The Tide measure is on the ballot for a third time after anti-rail factions led by city treasurer John Atkinson garnered more than 32,000 signatures earlier this year for a re-vote on the issue.
A poll by the Virginian-Pilot newspaper and Christopher Newport University of 706 likely voters found that 53% of those between 18 and 34 said they would vote 'yes' at the referendum while 55% of those older than 55 planned to vote against light rail.
The turnout for the presidential election may well determine the fate of the Virginia Beach referendum, said pollster Quentin Kidd of Newport University.
The poll found that 64% of voters supporting Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton for president are in favor of light rail and 67% of voters backing Republican candidate Donald Trump will vote no.
Early voting in Virginia was up more than 22% from 2012, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, but by only 4% in Virginia Beach.
The latest poll shows support for light rail has slipped since 2012, said Atkinson, who heads the No Light Rail Virginia Beach group.
"I'm happy," he said. "Campaigns still need to peak the day before the election. 'No light rail' is heading up and light rail is losing ground.
Cathy Callahan, who leads a pro-rail group, said she was encouraged by the survey. "It's a tight vote at this point, but if you look further into the poll numbers, people do think Hampton Roads should have a regional light rail system and people do think it's a smart move for the future," she said. "So they understand how it can be beneficial to Virginia Beach and the region."
The state will pick up $155 million of the cost of the extension with the city funding its share from a 1.8% real estate tax approved by the city council in May 2015. The tax would raise the annual levy on a $250,000 home by $45.
If the vote goes against the rail proposal and the city council decides to kill the project, it would owe the state the $20 million already spent on engineering and the $155 million set aside for the project would be returned to the state transportation fund.
An economic development report from the city staff said the light rail line could result in between $1.9 billion and $8.3 billion of economic development over the next 50 years and generate between $467 million and $2 billion in local taxes.
The study said The Tide has created $509 million in transit-oriented development with 11 projects on the way.
The Tide was the first light rail line in Virginia when it opened in August 2011. The 7.4-mile line light rail system serves downtown Norfolk and a nearby medical school and state university.
