BRADENTON, Fla. — Florida's economists predict the state is on track to rake in record revenues in fiscal 2016 and 2017, although state officials should also expect expenses to increase, a budget watchdog group warns.
An August consensus estimating conference increased the amount of estimated state general revenues upward by $287.3 million in the current budget and $175 million in 2017.
The better revenue outlook is based in part on the fact that collections in fiscal 2015 actually came in $195.2 million above estimate primarily from higher state sales taxes. The state budget is highly dependent on sales tax income since Florida does not have a personal income tax.
Forecasters predict that net general revenue collections will total a record $28.4 billion in the current year and $29.75 billion in fiscal 2017.
"I'm pleased to see the revised forecast project an increase in revenue because it means Florida's economy is growing," said House Speaker Steve Crisafulli, R-Merritt Island. "The House will remain focused on keeping Florida on the path of prosperity as we head into the 2016-2017 fiscal year."
State policy makers have the most spending flexibility in the general fund.
The rise in revenues indicate that Florida's economy is returning to pre-recession days, and producing record income for the state budget, said Florida TaxWatch, an independent nonprofit research institute.
However, expenses for the nation's third-largest state are also going up, and there will be intense competition for any extra dollars, said Kurt Wenner, TaxWatch's vice president of research.
"Even with more cash to spend, lawmakers can't count on a big budget surplus yet," Wenner said. "There will be increased costs next year, including an additional 26,000 public school students and at least $500 million in new Medicaid spending."
Florida's record revenue growth has been seen in several categories, according to forecasters.
Strong tourism and motor vehicle purchases are among the areas that have strengthened sales tax collections, they said.
Stronger corporate profits have sparked better-than-anticipated corporate income tax as well, forecasters said, as they boosted estimates in that category by $141.4 million this year and by $181.8 million in 2017.
Real estate sales are also improving, and led forecasters to increase the estimated amount of those taxes by an additional $44 million this year and $44.9 million in 2017.
Combined general revenues, federal funds, and other income boosted Florida's state budget to a record $78.2 billion this year, including $1.2 billion in reserves.
State lawmakers also enacted$427 million in tax cuts, most of which are recurring from year-to-year.
