Securitization

Summer redemption season has ended, and "without the huge amounts of maturing and called bond principal flowing back to investors, demand in the last months of the year will be more reliant on new money coming into the market than it was in June, July and August," said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights.

Investors will see more than $7.8 billion of supply to start off September, following a record issuance month in August. The calendar is led by the North Texas Tollway Authority's $1.126 billion of system revenue refunding bonds while high-grade Massachusetts leads the competitive slate with $850 million of exempt and taxable general obligation bonds.

The muni market is "well-positioned for strategic opportunities, with strong inflows driven by the current narrative and eased secondary selling pressure," said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

The Investment Company Institute reported more than $1.3 billion of inflows into muni mutual funds. The last time inflows topped $1 billion, per ICI data, was for the week ending Feb. 7. LSEG Lipper has reported weeks with $1 billion plus inflows on July 31 and May 8.

ICE's and MarketAxess's networks are "complementary," said Peter Borstelmann, president of ICE Bonds, as the former is "deep and rich" in the retail wealth segment, while the latter is "deep and rich" in the institutional space.

"On the whole, the municipal market continues to provide an attractive entry point for investors," said AllianceBernstein strategists. "And with the Fed clearly communicating that a September rate cut is imminent, the future is bright for the municipal market."

"The forward calendar shows issuance will be above average over the next few weeks, while reinvestment cash is set to drop off," Birch Creek strategists said.

The calendar next week largely continues "the elevated pace of primary market volume seen since May, against a backdrop of broadly supportive fund flows (LSEG inflows for eight consecutive weeks), somewhat better dealer positions (although still heavy), mid-August reinvestment to spend, but lighter late summer attendance," said J.P. Morgan strategists led by Peter DeGroot.

Along with the influx of supply, the muni market remains "constructive" due to attractive yields, said Catherine Stienstra, head of municipal bond investments at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

All eyes are on Jackson Hole and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech this week, noted Cooper Howard, a fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab.

"Investor reception will remain the ultimate arbiter of muni performance and … the current state of the tax-exempt space to be well-positioned, even though munis are likely to continue to underperform USTs," said Jeff Lipton, a research analyst and market strategist.

As investors contemplate rate policy for the remainder of 2024, "there have been a few strategies from which to choose to boost yield — short positioning, curve extension and credit quality," noted Kim Olsan, senior fixed-income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Barclays rate strategists believe the 10-year part of the Treasury curve has room to cheapen. "In that case, tax-exempts will likely not only follow, but underperform."

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows as investors added $528.7 million to funds after $674.1 million of inflows the week prior, according to LSEG Lipper. This marks seven straight weeks of inflows.

"There's an important 'date certain' the market may overreact to, but by and large, [this] week is looking positive given a lighter new- issue calendar," said AllianceBernstein strategists.

"After a long-period of muni yields not being that attractive relative to corporates, that's starting to shift," Charles Schwab's Cooper Howard said.

Muni returns so far in August are in the black, with the Bloomberg Municipal Index at 0.53% this month and 1.04% year to date. High-yield continues to outperform with returns at 0.68% in August and 5.99% in 2024.

The past several trading sessions have seen "crazy volatility," said Jennifer Johnston, director of research of municipal bonds at Franklin Templeton.

Recent events have been a "roundtrip" for rates, starting with the sentiment shifting from slowing inflation to a softening labor market, said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

This week's new-issue calendar will be "outsized," said Anders S. Persson, Nuveen's chief investment officer for global fixed-income, and Daniel J. Close, Nuveen's head of municipals.