Securitization

The August consumer price index showed inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target level and makes a 50-basis-point rate cut next week unlikely, economists said. Further, many expect the market will be disappointed going forward, as future cuts will likely be shallower than expected.

Municipals lagged the UST moves again, cheapening ratios and creating a valuable entry point for investors looking for compelling taxable equivalent yields, particularly 10-years and out.

"Despite the underperformance of tax-exempt yields last week, we could see some more pressure on both spreads and ratios due to the heavy supply calendar," said Vikram Rai, head of municipal markets strategy at Wells Fargo.

Municipal supply continues to grow as Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply sits at $20.02 billion and the municipal market will see one of the largest weeks of new-issuance at an estimated $13.35 billion, led by three billion-plus deals from Washington, D.C. ($1.6 billion), the New York City Transitional Finance Authority ($1.5 billion) and Illinois ($1 billion).

Ciraolo, who spent more than 17 years at Goldman Sachs, has been brought on as a senior vice president in corporate and municipal short-term securities to help expand SWS' taxable muni franchise through commercial paper trading.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows as investors added $956 million to funds after $1.047 billion of inflows the week prior, according to LSEG Lipper.

Most weeks in September are expected to see around $10 billion of issuance, which could easily grow if a prepaid gas deal is thrown into the mix, said Jason Appleson, head of municipal bonds at PGIM Fixed Income. Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply sits at $16.46 billion.

Summer redemption season has ended, and "without the huge amounts of maturing and called bond principal flowing back to investors, demand in the last months of the year will be more reliant on new money coming into the market than it was in June, July and August," said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights.

Investors will see more than $7.8 billion of supply to start off September, following a record issuance month in August. The calendar is led by the North Texas Tollway Authority's $1.126 billion of system revenue refunding bonds while high-grade Massachusetts leads the competitive slate with $850 million of exempt and taxable general obligation bonds.

The muni market is "well-positioned for strategic opportunities, with strong inflows driven by the current narrative and eased secondary selling pressure," said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.