Securitization

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows of $1.879 billion in the latest week, marking the 14th consecutive week of inflows and the highest level of 2024, per LSEG data, reiterating the strong investor support for this market.

The biggest theme within the muni market — and what is responsible for its performance — is the amount of cash on the sidelines, with $6-plus trillion in money market funds and close to $2.5 trillion in certificates of deposits, said Julio Bonilla, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Schroders.

Through the integration, Investortool's clients can calculate analytics based on predictive trade levels, filter the live market based on "what's rich or what's cheap" compared to the predictive price and power automation, said James Morris, senior vice president at Investortools.

The larger supply calendar should be "taken down well given the persistent inflows into our market and investors are still sitting on plenty of cash," said Daryl Clements, a municipal portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein.

With supply ballooning, reinvestment dollars at lows of the year, J.P. Morgan's Peter DeGroot argues the next few weeks could offer the best opportunity to buy bonds of the year – and possibly the rate cycle. DeGroot talks about this, plus potential impacts of shifting investor behavior on market liquidity, and what the upcoming election might mean for tax policy and the muni market. Lynne Funk hosts.

"As September draws to a close, some dynamics may prevail in October but others could undergo a shift," said NewSquare Capital's Kim Olsan. "One aspect that will continue is the level of supply coming to market." 

Municipal triple-A yield curves closed out the week with few changes, valuations were little changed, but at attractive levels, and the forward calendar climbs to more than $10 billion to open the fourth quarter.

High-yield muni issuance totals $20 billion year-to-date, "reflecting normalization from relatively depressed levels in 2023 ($7.6 billion over the comparable period), and now virtually equal to the trailing five-year average for the period ($20.1 billion)," said J.P. Morgan strategists, led by Peter DeGroot.

The Investment Company Institute reported $1.329 billion of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Sept. 18 after $1.402 billion of inflows the week prior. Exchange-traded funds saw $55 million of inflows after $1.048 billion of inflows the previous week.

Demand for munis looks "fairly stable" for now, particularly after the 10- to 25-basis-point rally ended in the 30 days before the Federal Reserve cut rates last week, Municipal Market Analytics, Inc. said, noting the "bull-steepening adjustment" looks like the 30-day move before the beginning of the Fed's last cutting cycle, at the end of July 2019.