Securitization

The muni market may see additional volatility due to "uncertainties related to the future of tariffs and stronger inflation prints," said Barclays strategists led by Mikhail Foux.

Investors added $1.266 billion to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, following $744.3 million of inflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data.

While the market navigates a surge in supply, another focus area has become elections and their potential to shift market demand, as several regional election results will likely garner greater attention over the next few months, said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Tuesday saw a good slate of deals, including the acceleration of Ohio's $508.865 million of GOs and Austin's $419.035 million of electric utility system revenue refunding bonds.

"Normalized supply, a supportive rate environment and favorable technicals propelled the municipal market to the best October performance [in decades]," said Robert J. Lind.

Meanwhile, the Brightline West train project has floated a possible debt exchange ahead of its own mandatory redemption later this month.

Next week's issuance is slated to be "substantial" — an estimated $13.1 billion — although that is expected to be met with "solid" November reinvestment capital, J.P. Morgan strategists said.

Technicals are supposed to become slightly more favorable into year-end, said Jeremy Holtz, a portfolio manager at Income Research + Management.

"The knee-jerk reaction of the markets to the Fed meeting (and press conference) was to sell stocks and bonds, because [Fed] Chairman Jerome Powell said that an additional rate cut in December wasn't a sure thing," said Northlight Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Chris Zaccarelli.

The softer-than-expected September consumer price index report, released Friday, reinforced confidence in the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at its October meeting and potentially at its December meeting, said Tom Kozlik, managing director and head of public policy and municipal strategy at HilltopSecurities.

Issuance is light this week, with $5.367 billion on tap, and it should be "easily distributed," J.P. Morgan strategists said.

"Investors were not disappointed," said John Kerschner, global head of securitized products and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson. "Inflation came in softer than expected, leading to a tepid bond market rally" and ensuring a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Jamie Doffermyre  has worked in munis at Truist Securities, Citi and Merrill Lynch.

"We're not going to be having huge reinvestment months over the next few months, not until the beginning of the year. So we need this flow [of deals] to keep up with demand, and we expect that to continue," said Jennifer Johnston, director of municipal bonds research at Franklin Templeton.

The tax-exempt market is expected to be "biased higher" in the coming weeks and months as the expected heavy pace of issuance this month will not be as "oppressive" as feared, said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights.

Demand may strengthen as "investors anticipate the Federal Reserve's likely path of rate cuts, which would drive yields even lower," said Tom Kozlik, managing director and head of public policy and municipal strategy at HilltopSecurities.

"The story remains the same: solid demand is more than enough to take down the sizable new issue supply," said Daryl Clements, a portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein.

Its triple-A bonds have recovered after cheapening earlier this year under a pressure campaign from the Trump administration.

The new-issue calendar is at $15.637 billion and boasts four mega deals.

Earlier Thursday, the market was "chugging along, doing OK, just kind of nothing, in between slight strength to modest upticks, but the narrative changed when that bank news came out. The market really ran pretty quickly," said Chris Brigati, managing director and CIO at SWBC.