Secondary bond market

"The November muni rally continues as month-to-date returns are now at 4.68%, pushing us further into positive territory for the year as year-to-date returns now stand at 2.35%," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

"The market has had a solid tone to it recently even with the strong rally seen this month," Roberto Roffo, managing director and portfolio manager at SWBC Investment Management, said of the Nov. 10 rally where municipal yields in 10 years fell by as much as 40 basis points.

There had been speculation of layoffs in Citi's municipal division as several high-profile employees had been departing the firm over the last year, but sources said they have not heard of any muni layoffs.

The large drop in yields since the end of October can be reflected in sentiment that investors expect a potentially dovish Fed next year, and that a soft landing narrative gives them "permission to finally purchase the bonds they've been admiring," said MMA's Matt Fabian.

This year has seen an increase in and an earlier start to tax loss harvesting amid rapidly rising interest rates and stronger equity market performance.

The rally in munis over the last three weeks has "pushed ratios to levels that we have not seen since the start of the year," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Tradeweb created a model that examines outstanding municipal securities, both tax-exempts and taxables, and it looks for similarities in bond features, such as maturities, call dates, use of proceeds and coupon structures.

BofA Global Research strategists said they believe peak muni yields in this Fed tightening cycle were attained in October 2023 and "the bull market for munis is underway." 

The municipal dashboard solves three challenges: bond linkage, pricing and spread aggregation.

"Demand is firming up. Interest rates have moved off the recent highs. Intermediate muni yields are about 50 basis points off from those highs," said Stephen Shutz, head of tax-exempt fixed income and a portfolio manager at Brown Advisory.

"Everyone is reevaluating and taking a breather after the numbers [on Tuesday]," a New York trader said.

Munis yields fell nine to 12 basis points, depending on the curve, but underperformed larger gains along the UST curve. Large new-issues began pricing.

November "continues to be off to a strong start as yields have fallen an average of 34 basis points across the curve since the start of the month," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

"As with most fast rallies there are sessions when the market pauses to assess where fair value should play out," said Kim Olsan, senior vice president of municipal bond trading at FHN Financial.

A constructive trading session in the secondary aided a busy primary once again as investors appear to be more engaged in the asset class.

California and Washington sold four large refunding GO deals in the competitive market while several deals of size priced in the negotiated market led by a $650 million for Arizona's Salt River Project. A constructive secondary led yields to fall three to five basis points.

The recent rally is good news for munis, which have "posted a total-negative return loss for three straight months," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Friday's employment report was good news for the Federal Reserve, with fewer jobs created and a smaller rise in earnings, leading analysts to cautiously increase expectations that the hiking cycle is over.

Triple-A muni yields fell 10 to 14 basis points while UST saw gains of up to 16bps out long as market participants consider a potential end to Fed rate hikes.

Municipals closed out October in the red, the third consecutive month of losses for the asset class.