Secondary bond market

Despite the outperformance this week, and while the asset class had "a stellar December, which rounded out a very solid year," Barclays PLC strategists said the high-grade muni market has become "quite rich."

The muni market enters this year from a relative position of strength, said Jeff Lipton, managing director and head of municipal research and strategy at Oppenheimer.

This year has favorable potential for 1Q activity, noting an unusually large scheduled reinvestment potential in January and February, including $19 billion of maturities plus calls in January and $24.9 billion in February, noted MMA's Matt Fabian.

"Buyers went all in on revenue-sector names, with that category earning 6.8% and beating out GOs by 127 basis points," said FHN Financial's Kim Olsan. "Sub-sectors within the revenue category pointed to a risk-on theme into year-end." 

This performance is a dramatic rebound from 2022's losses.

LSEG Lipper reported Thursday that investors pulled $463.7 million from muni mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday after inflows of $147 million the week prior.

Late-month volumes are "waning as it appears the year's tax-loss harvesting was accomplished leading up to the holiday period," said Kim Olsan, senior vice president of municipal bond trading at FHN Financial.

Cooper Howard, director and fixed income strategist for the Charles Schwab Center for Financial Research, shares his thoughts on the intermediate duration with Investors & Investing reporter Christine Albano

Munis' strong performance from November continued into December, said Miguel Laranjeiro, a portfolio manager at abrdn.

The year is ending on a strong note, said Joshua Perry, a partner, portfolio manager and municipal credit analyst at Brown Advisory.

LSEG Lipper reported Thursday that investors added $147 million to muni mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday after outflows of $514.5 million the week prior. High-yield saw some outflows, though.

The Investment Company Institute reported more outflows from municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Dec. 13, with investors pulling $588 million from the funds.

The Bloomberg Municipal Index has returned 1.90% so far in December and 5.96% year-to-date, while the High-Yield Index is up 2.75% this month and 8.94% in 2023. Taxable munis are returning 3.98% in December bringing year-to-date returns to 7.83%.

The Philadelphia-based financial advisory firm has used BVAL for several years, but once the full interpolated curve and the intraday hourly changes were released on the EMMA, PFM decided to use BVAL as its primary pricing curve.

With fears of further Fed hikes subsided, Birch Creek strategists said with "loads of cash still sitting on the sidelines, and expectations that cash will no longer earn 5%+, we believe the muni market will benefit in 2024 from a return of investors looking to allocate to the asset class."

Triple-A yields fell up to five basis points Friday while USTs were mixed. Munis still underperformed taxables on the week, but the setup for the asset class going into yearend is decidedly positive.

Secondary trading showed clear strength across the yield curve Thursday with bellwether names trading up significantly from recent prints and original pricing levels. New-issues in the primary benefited with issuers repricing to lower yields and tight to triple-A curves.

Muni yields fell up to five basis points and dramatically underperformed USTs, as they are wont to do on FOMC days. Treasury yields fell as much as 29 basis points on the two-year and sent the 10-year down closer to the 4% threshold.

Issuers should "absolutely be issuing if possible; the end of year outlook is positive on the surface but substantial volatility lies just below and could arrest or interrupt what have been easier primary market conditions," said MMA's Matt Fabian.

The weakness came as the new-issue calendar grew to $5.9 billion with the addition of a $900 million refunding deal from the Illinois State Highway Toll Highway Authority slated for Thursday. Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply sits at $6.95 billion.