Secondary bond market

The long end of the municipal curve rallied under a backdrop of stronger-than-expected October jobs data and upward revesions to the prior two months ahead of the arrival of $9.6 billion next week.

For 35 weeks in a row, investors have put cash into municipal bond funds as Refinitiv Lipper reported $603 million of inflows while high-yield funds eked out a gain of slightly more than $1 million.

After the FOMC made taper official, high-grade benchmark yields ended the day one to three basis points better while USTs ended the day higher after an up-and-down trading session that moved the 30-year back above 2%.

The FOMC will likely take the opportunity to profess its reliance on data to decide liftoff and reiterate the threshold for a rate hike remains higher than for taper.

Chuck Stavitski and Elaine Brennan of Roosevelt & Cross and Ken Bieger of the Niagara Falls Bridge Commission talk about how the Canadian border closing due to COVID-19 affected upstate New York issuers. Chip Barnett hosts. (16 minutes)

Though monetary policy has been in the forefront, at mid-month the tone changed with global inflation outlooks and federal infrastructure and social package in flux.

A lighter, $5 billion calendar, heavy on healthcare, kicks off November. Most participants agree volatility in U.S. Treasuries will be a leading factor for municipal market performance. Uncertainty in Washington also isn't helping the asset class.

Amid a flattening municipal yield curve and inversion of the Treasury market, new issues fared better than the secondary on Thursday as participants prepared for month end.

ICI reported the lowest inflows since outflows in March, while exchanged-traded funds saw an uptick.

As of now, returns for the month will very likely end in the red. The Bloomberg U.S. Municipal Index is at -0.40% for the month and +0.39% for the year.

Despite a short-end U.S. Treasury rally, municipals face pressure on the one- and two-year as participants look to month-end positioning.

Volume falls slightly in the week of October 25 with total potential volume estimated at $7.408 billion: $6.036 billion of negotiated deals and $1.372 billion in the competitive market.

Municipal bond mutual fund inflows fell to $177 million while high-yield is back to outflows, both signaling selling may be moving the market toward another larger correction.

The Investment Company Institute reported $385 million of inflows while ETFs fell to $124 million.

Spreads have been widening, but secondary trading was on the light side and triple-A benchmarks were cut by only a basis point in spots even as U.S. Treasury yields once again rose on the 10- and 30-year.

Triple-A benchmarks saw one basis point cuts in spots inside 10 years while the five-year U.S. Treasury hit a high of 1.154%.

Friday’s data suggested inflation remains a problem, as the voices calling for Federal Reserve action increase.

Municipals have mostly held steady as bid-wanteds have risen, but so have yields and ratios, making for a more satisfactory range for investors getting into the market at these new higher levels.

Another round of inflows was reported from the Investment Company Institute — the 31st consecutive week — but they came in at $308 million for the week ending Oct. 6, the lowest since outflows in March.

Volatility in the U.S. Treasury market continues to pull on municipal bond valuations, despite little trading volume.