Secondary bond market

ICE's and MarketAxess's networks are "complementary," said Peter Borstelmann, president of ICE Bonds, as the former is "deep and rich" in the retail wealth segment, while the latter is "deep and rich" in the institutional space.

"On the whole, the municipal market continues to provide an attractive entry point for investors," said AllianceBernstein strategists. "And with the Fed clearly communicating that a September rate cut is imminent, the future is bright for the municipal market."

"The forward calendar shows issuance will be above average over the next few weeks, while reinvestment cash is set to drop off," Birch Creek strategists said.

The calendar next week largely continues "the elevated pace of primary market volume seen since May, against a backdrop of broadly supportive fund flows (LSEG inflows for eight consecutive weeks), somewhat better dealer positions (although still heavy), mid-August reinvestment to spend, but lighter late summer attendance," said J.P. Morgan strategists led by Peter DeGroot.

Along with the influx of supply, the muni market remains "constructive" due to attractive yields, said Catherine Stienstra, head of municipal bond investments at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

All eyes are on Jackson Hole and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech this week, noted Cooper Howard, a fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab.

"Investor reception will remain the ultimate arbiter of muni performance and … the current state of the tax-exempt space to be well-positioned, even though munis are likely to continue to underperform USTs," said Jeff Lipton, a research analyst and market strategist.

As investors contemplate rate policy for the remainder of 2024, "there have been a few strategies from which to choose to boost yield — short positioning, curve extension and credit quality," noted Kim Olsan, senior fixed-income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Barclays rate strategists believe the 10-year part of the Treasury curve has room to cheapen. "In that case, tax-exempts will likely not only follow, but underperform."

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows as investors added $528.7 million to funds after $674.1 million of inflows the week prior, according to LSEG Lipper. This marks seven straight weeks of inflows.

"There's an important 'date certain' the market may overreact to, but by and large, [this] week is looking positive given a lighter new- issue calendar," said AllianceBernstein strategists.

"After a long-period of muni yields not being that attractive relative to corporates, that's starting to shift," Charles Schwab's Cooper Howard said.

Muni returns so far in August are in the black, with the Bloomberg Municipal Index at 0.53% this month and 1.04% year to date. High-yield continues to outperform with returns at 0.68% in August and 5.99% in 2024.

The past several trading sessions have seen "crazy volatility," said Jennifer Johnston, director of research of municipal bonds at Franklin Templeton.

Recent events have been a "roundtrip" for rates, starting with the sentiment shifting from slowing inflation to a softening labor market, said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

This week's new-issue calendar will be "outsized," said Anders S. Persson, Nuveen's chief investment officer for global fixed-income, and Daniel J. Close, Nuveen's head of municipals.

All eyes now turn to the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting where the Fed is expected to cut rates, but market participants are mixed on whether it will be a 25- or 50-basis-point cut.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows as investors added $1.112 billion to funds after $892.2 million of inflows the week prior, according to LSEG Lipper.

"The Fed remains data dependent as always, but it now appears that the 'more good data' bar is not as high as it was before, particularly with labor market developments becoming more important," said Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Economics.

Yields may move lower after the Federal Reserve "communicates its goals to ease policy in coming meetings," said Tom Kozlik, managing director and head of public policy and municipal strategy at HilltopSecurities.