Secondary bond market

The rally in munis over the last three weeks has "pushed ratios to levels that we have not seen since the start of the year," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

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BofA Global Research strategists said they believe peak muni yields in this Fed tightening cycle were attained in October 2023 and "the bull market for munis is underway." 

The municipal dashboard solves three challenges: bond linkage, pricing and spread aggregation.

"Demand is firming up. Interest rates have moved off the recent highs. Intermediate muni yields are about 50 basis points off from those highs," said Stephen Shutz, head of tax-exempt fixed income and a portfolio manager at Brown Advisory.

"Everyone is reevaluating and taking a breather after the numbers [on Tuesday]," a New York trader said.

Munis yields fell nine to 12 basis points, depending on the curve, but underperformed larger gains along the UST curve. Large new-issues began pricing.

November "continues to be off to a strong start as yields have fallen an average of 34 basis points across the curve since the start of the month," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

"As with most fast rallies there are sessions when the market pauses to assess where fair value should play out," said Kim Olsan, senior vice president of municipal bond trading at FHN Financial.

A constructive trading session in the secondary aided a busy primary once again as investors appear to be more engaged in the asset class.

California and Washington sold four large refunding GO deals in the competitive market while several deals of size priced in the negotiated market led by a $650 million for Arizona's Salt River Project. A constructive secondary led yields to fall three to five basis points.

The recent rally is good news for munis, which have "posted a total-negative return loss for three straight months," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Friday's employment report was good news for the Federal Reserve, with fewer jobs created and a smaller rise in earnings, leading analysts to cautiously increase expectations that the hiking cycle is over.

Triple-A muni yields fell 10 to 14 basis points while UST saw gains of up to 16bps out long as market participants consider a potential end to Fed rate hikes.

Municipals closed out October in the red, the third consecutive month of losses for the asset class.

While the FOMC statement will likely have very few changes, the post-minutes release press conference will be the wildcard.

Bond Buyer Senior Reporter Keeley Webster shares an interview with California Treasurer Fiona Ma on her run for lieutenant governor as a prelude to a fireside chat Wells Fargo Director Julia Kim conducted with the state treasurer at The Bond Buyer's California Public Finance conference.

Another month of muni losses "may spark additional sale pressure as some investors throw in the towel, but we suspect any further weakness would represent a strong entry point for [investment grade] buyers," Birch Creek Capital said in a weekly report.

If Treasury rates become "more stabilized," it provides "a good reason to be somewhat constructive on munis for a while," BofA Global Research said in a report.

Investors continue to pull money from muni mutual funds with LSEG Lipper reporting $934.7 million of outflows for the week ending Wednesday after $297 million of outflows the week prior.