Secondary bond market

The seasonal factors of a supply and demand mismatch, reinvestment needs and strong credit fundamentals, have opened a window of opportunity.

High-yield raked in the majority of the flows helped by Nuveen reopening two of its high-yield funds to new investors. Participants remain cautious as macroeconomic effects still hang over the market.

Municipals posted gains for the first time in 2022 in May, outperforming U.S. Treasuries on the month. The Bloomberg Muni Index posted a 1.49% return in May bringing losses down to 7.47% year to date.

June redemptions will be the highest of the year at $50.6 billion. New-issue supply — 30-day visible is currently at $15.5 billion — is unlikely to keep up.

The rapid swing to lower yields over the past week has led to a sunnier outlook for the summer reinvestment season, but uncertainties on the economic front, rate volatility, and supply questions hang overhead.

Investors will be greeted Tuesday with a decrease in supply with the new-issue calendar estimated at $2.691 billion in $1.786 billion of negotiated deals and $904.9 million of competitive loans.

Municipals improved for the fifth session in a row with 10- and 30-year triple-A yields falling 30 basis points since Thursday. Connecticut priced $1 billion-plus of GOs and saw yields lowered in a repricing.

Several major technicals are beginning to improve in the muni market, said Burt Mulford, portfolio co-manager of fixed and strategic income at Eagle Asset Management.

Fixed-income markets have had a tough 2022 but municipal bonds have been among the ones that have struggled the most.

Given the volatility of risk assets is likely to remain high, and the focus on the flight to safety increases, all fixed-income assets could benefit as a result, including municipals, Barclays strategists say.