Secondary bond market

The calendar next week largely continues "the elevated pace of primary market volume seen since May, against a backdrop of broadly supportive fund flows (LSEG inflows for eight consecutive weeks), somewhat better dealer positions (although still heavy), mid-August reinvestment to spend, but lighter late summer attendance," said J.P. Morgan strategists led by Peter DeGroot.

Along with the influx of supply, the muni market remains "constructive" due to attractive yields, said Catherine Stienstra, head of municipal bond investments at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

All eyes are on Jackson Hole and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech this week, noted Cooper Howard, a fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab.

"Investor reception will remain the ultimate arbiter of muni performance and … the current state of the tax-exempt space to be well-positioned, even though munis are likely to continue to underperform USTs," said Jeff Lipton, a research analyst and market strategist.

As investors contemplate rate policy for the remainder of 2024, "there have been a few strategies from which to choose to boost yield — short positioning, curve extension and credit quality," noted Kim Olsan, senior fixed-income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Barclays rate strategists believe the 10-year part of the Treasury curve has room to cheapen. "In that case, tax-exempts will likely not only follow, but underperform."

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows as investors added $528.7 million to funds after $674.1 million of inflows the week prior, according to LSEG Lipper. This marks seven straight weeks of inflows.

"There's an important 'date certain' the market may overreact to, but by and large, [this] week is looking positive given a lighter new- issue calendar," said AllianceBernstein strategists.

"After a long-period of muni yields not being that attractive relative to corporates, that's starting to shift," Charles Schwab's Cooper Howard said.

Muni returns so far in August are in the black, with the Bloomberg Municipal Index at 0.53% this month and 1.04% year to date. High-yield continues to outperform with returns at 0.68% in August and 5.99% in 2024.