Primary bond market

The latest research from The Bond Buyer predicts supply and issuance volume will grow in the months ahead.

"We are still not overly concerned about the effect of the geopolitical concerns on municipals — in our view, the muni market is well insulated," said Barclays strategists.

Market technicals should weaken this month in line with seasonal expectations, with estimated redemption capital of $32 billion compared to estimated supply of $41 billion, said Appleton Partners strategists.

With USTs stable and the "snoozer" of economic data Wednesday morning, the muni market has settled, with muni yields little, said Jeff MacDonald, EVP and head of fixed income strategies at Fiduciary Trust International.

"Once the damage is done, it takes a little longer for it to come back," said Elaine Brennan, executive director of the public finance department at Roosevelt and Cross, of the muni market.

Chicago returns to market March 10 with $800.29 million of general obligation bonds, following bond rating downgrades from Fitch Ratings and KBRA.

Monday saw a more muted tone, but Tuesday munis are playing a little bit of a catch-up to the backup in rates, said Chris Brigati, managing director and CIO at SWBC.

A recent report from The Bond Buyer found that data quality and accuracy was the top concern among AI skeptics in the industry.

Major Texas cities are prepping big bond issues to finance convention center expansions, with Houston hitting the market this week with $1.425 billion of debt.

First thing this morning, there wasn't much action as market participants waited to see what would happen, but as the day went on, munis got progressively weaker, said Kyle Gerberding, director of trading, a portfolio manager and partner at Asset Preservation Advisors.

Issuance was $40.336 billion in 632 issues, down only 1.1% year-over-year from $40.772 billion across 731 transactions.

The Vermont Bond Bank debuts a new indenture when it sells $56 million of bonds this week. It's following a nationwide trend in bond bank structures. 

On the week, the muni market performed well, with most investor action happening in the longer half of the curve, said BofA strategists.

Investors added $1.029 billion to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, following $1.269 billion of inflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data. This is the seventh time in eight weeks that inflows have topped $1 billion.

Findings from The Bond Buyer's 2026 Predictions Report show tax shakeups and political uncertainty pose major challenges to public finance.

There is a positive view of the muni market in the long-term due to a mix of attractive tax-adjusted yields and a generally favorable credit backdrop, said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab.

The Trump administration filed the lawsuit Tuesday ahead of UC Regents plans to price $1.93 billion in revenue bonds.

While broader economic risks remain, market dynamics are being driven by supply, demand and income generation, rather than macro headlines, said Pat Haskell, head of the municipal bond group at BlackRock.

"Trump indicated the administration will implement additional tariffs under different authorities, and we expect the aggregate effective tariff rate to ultimately settle around 13%, largely unchanged from current levels," Nuveen strategists said.

Jeff Lipton compares The Bond Buyer's 2026 Predictions Report to his outlook series.