Mutual funds

This surge in demand "is no coincidence — it's the result of weeks of relentless inflows, further amplified by the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut," said 16Rock Asset Management CIO James Pruskowski.

With supply ballooning, reinvestment dollars at lows of the year, J.P. Morgan's Peter DeGroot argues the next few weeks could offer the best opportunity to buy bonds of the year – and possibly the rate cycle. DeGroot talks about this, plus potential impacts of shifting investor behavior on market liquidity, and what the upcoming election might mean for tax policy and the muni market. Lynne Funk hosts.

High-yield muni issuance totals $20 billion year-to-date, "reflecting normalization from relatively depressed levels in 2023 ($7.6 billion over the comparable period), and now virtually equal to the trailing five-year average for the period ($20.1 billion)," said J.P. Morgan strategists, led by Peter DeGroot.

Nuveen LLC reached an agreement to sell its 11% equity stake in Vistra Vision to Vistra Corp., that started as municipal bonds ensnared in a bankruptcy.

Despite the underperformance to USTs, munis saw positive momentum during the first two weeks of September with the asset class returning 0.68% so far this month and 1.99% year-to-date.

While supply falls next week as investors await their first Fed rate cut in four years, it should pick up after the FOMC, Barclays PLC said, adding the 30-day visible pipeline "is at relatively manageable levels at the moment." Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply is at $10.09 billion.

Household ownership of individual bonds was the largest category of muni ownership at 44.6%, mutual funds at 19.2%, exchange-traded funds at 3.1% and U.S. banks at 12.4%. While not detailed in the Federal Reserve data, SMAs may hold up to $1.6 trillion currently.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows as investors added $1.258 billion to funds — the second-largest inflow figure year-to-date after $1.413 billion of inflows for the week ending Jan. 31.

The August consumer price index showed inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target level and makes a 50-basis-point rate cut next week unlikely, economists said. Further, many expect the market will be disappointed going forward, as future cuts will likely be shallower than expected.

Municipal supply continues to grow as Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply sits at $20.02 billion and the municipal market will see one of the largest weeks of new-issuance at an estimated $13.35 billion, led by three billion-plus deals from Washington, D.C. ($1.6 billion), the New York City Transitional Finance Authority ($1.5 billion) and Illinois ($1 billion).

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows as investors added $956 million to funds after $1.047 billion of inflows the week prior, according to LSEG Lipper.

Most weeks in September are expected to see around $10 billion of issuance, which could easily grow if a prepaid gas deal is thrown into the mix, said Jason Appleson, head of municipal bonds at PGIM Fixed Income. Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply sits at $16.46 billion.

Investors will see more than $7.8 billion of supply to start off September, following a record issuance month in August. The calendar is led by the North Texas Tollway Authority's $1.126 billion of system revenue refunding bonds while high-grade Massachusetts leads the competitive slate with $850 million of exempt and taxable general obligation bonds.

The Investment Company Institute reported more than $1.3 billion of inflows into muni mutual funds. The last time inflows topped $1 billion, per ICI data, was for the week ending Feb. 7. LSEG Lipper has reported weeks with $1 billion plus inflows on July 31 and May 8.

The calendar next week largely continues "the elevated pace of primary market volume seen since May, against a backdrop of broadly supportive fund flows (LSEG inflows for eight consecutive weeks), somewhat better dealer positions (although still heavy), mid-August reinvestment to spend, but lighter late summer attendance," said J.P. Morgan strategists led by Peter DeGroot.

All eyes are on Jackson Hole and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech this week, noted Cooper Howard, a fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab.

The Investment Company Institute reported $839 million of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Aug. 7 after $442 million of outflows the week prior. Exchange-traded funds saw $680 million of inflows after $950 million of inflows the previous week.

"After a long-period of muni yields not being that attractive relative to corporates, that's starting to shift," Charles Schwab's Cooper Howard said.

Muni returns so far in August are in the black, with the Bloomberg Municipal Index at 0.53% this month and 1.04% year to date. High-yield continues to outperform with returns at 0.68% in August and 5.99% in 2024.

The past several trading sessions have seen "crazy volatility," said Jennifer Johnston, director of research of municipal bonds at Franklin Templeton.