Mutual funds

This surge in demand "is no coincidence — it's the result of weeks of relentless inflows, further amplified by the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut," said 16Rock Asset Management CIO James Pruskowski.

With supply ballooning, reinvestment dollars at lows of the year, J.P. Morgan's Peter DeGroot argues the next few weeks could offer the best opportunity to buy bonds of the year – and possibly the rate cycle. DeGroot talks about this, plus potential impacts of shifting investor behavior on market liquidity, and what the upcoming election might mean for tax policy and the muni market. Lynne Funk hosts.

High-yield muni issuance totals $20 billion year-to-date, "reflecting normalization from relatively depressed levels in 2023 ($7.6 billion over the comparable period), and now virtually equal to the trailing five-year average for the period ($20.1 billion)," said J.P. Morgan strategists, led by Peter DeGroot.

Nuveen LLC reached an agreement to sell its 11% equity stake in Vistra Vision to Vistra Corp., that started as municipal bonds ensnared in a bankruptcy.

Despite the underperformance to USTs, munis saw positive momentum during the first two weeks of September with the asset class returning 0.68% so far this month and 1.99% year-to-date.

While supply falls next week as investors await their first Fed rate cut in four years, it should pick up after the FOMC, Barclays PLC said, adding the 30-day visible pipeline "is at relatively manageable levels at the moment." Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply is at $10.09 billion.

Household ownership of individual bonds was the largest category of muni ownership at 44.6%, mutual funds at 19.2%, exchange-traded funds at 3.1% and U.S. banks at 12.4%. While not detailed in the Federal Reserve data, SMAs may hold up to $1.6 trillion currently.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows as investors added $1.258 billion to funds — the second-largest inflow figure year-to-date after $1.413 billion of inflows for the week ending Jan. 31.

The August consumer price index showed inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target level and makes a 50-basis-point rate cut next week unlikely, economists said. Further, many expect the market will be disappointed going forward, as future cuts will likely be shallower than expected.

Municipal supply continues to grow as Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply sits at $20.02 billion and the municipal market will see one of the largest weeks of new-issuance at an estimated $13.35 billion, led by three billion-plus deals from Washington, D.C. ($1.6 billion), the New York City Transitional Finance Authority ($1.5 billion) and Illinois ($1 billion).