Monetary policy

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the central bank has met its goal of achieving “substantial further progress” on both inflation and employment, urging policy makers to move forward in reducing stimulus.

The high level of incarceration in the U.S., especially among Americans of color and indigenous people, constrains the labor market and the economy’s ability to reach its full potential, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said.

Consumer price spikes, which in June surged the most since 2008, will likely be a temporary feature of an economy that’s quickly recovering from the pandemic, said Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly.

"You now have a proven toolbox based on the data from the MSRB municipal trades,” says Brad Wendt of Charles River Associates.

While municipals hit the pause button Friday, the movement in yields in the first week of July marked the largest one-week decline in 2021.

More of the same from the FOMC did little to move UST or munis. ICI reported the 17th consecutive week of inflows at $1.98 billion. July is looking good for municipal issuers.

The Federal Reserve’s tapering of its asset purchases, which he hopes will start “soon,” will run smoother this time around because investors already know that a move is being discussed, said Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan.

Edward Al-Hussainy, senior interest rate and currency analyst at Columbia Threadneedle, will discuss the economy, inflation and the Federal Reserve.

Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said the better-than-expected performance of the U.S. economy warrants scaling back asset purchases sooner than expected and he favors starting with mortgage-backed securities.

The Federal Reserve might consider an interest-rate hike from near zero as soon as late 2022 as the labor market reaches full employment and inflation is at the central bank’s goal, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said.

The U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think, said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said the central bank could decide to slow its asset purchases in the next few months and he favored lifting interest rates in 2022 in response to a faster-than expected recovery from COVID-19 pandemic.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the price increases seen in the economy recently are bigger than expected but reiterated that they will likely wane.

A discussion about raising interest rates is still quite a ways off as the Federal Reserve begins debating tapering its bond-buying program, New York Fed President John Williams said.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation had picked up but should move back toward the U.S. central bank’s 2% target once supply imbalances resolve.

Inflation risks may warrant the Federal Reserve beginning raising interest rates next year, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said, backing an even-earlier liftoff than penciled in by many of his colleagues.

The Federal Reserve’s prestigious annual Jackson Hole policy symposium will be held in person this year, albeit in a modified form.

U.S. central bank officials may be able to begin discussing the appropriate timing of scaling back their bond-buying program at upcoming policy meetings, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said.

Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer James Gorman said he expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin tapering its bond buying toward the end of this year and start raising interest rates in early 2022, faster than the Wall Street bank’s own economists forecast.

Factors pushing U.S. inflation higher are likely to ebb at the start of 2022, said Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly.