Interest rates

Interest rates and federal elections hang heavy over the industry and municipal analysts believe certain muni sectors or subsectors will experience credit deterioration.

The BSBY interest rate benchmark was originally envisioned as a successor to the once-ubiquitous Libor rate. But it failed to gain much traction, and Bloomberg now plans to shut it down next year.

Proceeds from the deal, along with additional monies, were to have been used to fund the costs of the Royal Caribbean Cruises' campus project as well as a debt service reserve fund.

Concerns about large unrealized losses on bond investments have receded since the spring banking crisis, but the paper losses have started growing again in recent months. The worries today are less about banks' survival — and more about how much their margins will get squeezed.

Analysts look at whether the FOMC will bring the last rate hike in the cycle, whether recession is coming, and whether the Fed is making a policy mistake.

Much uncertainty remains as the second half of the year begins, with Federal Reserve rates, recession and inflation all still to be decided.

Bond traders have overestimated month-over-month headline inflation heading into four of the last seven Consumer Price Index releases, says strategist Raghav Datla.

The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet next week with many experts expecting to see a pause in federal fund rate hikes after ten straight upticks.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams says there is no evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended the era of very low interest rates experienced before the crisis, although growth may be slower in the long run.

It's one of four state cases accusing Wall Street banks of a "robo-resetting" scheme that kept interest on variable-rate debt artificially high.

The reverberations from the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures make the outcome of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting unpredictable.

Shares in Silicon Valley Bank's parent company plunged 60% after executives announced they would sell a large bond portfolio at a big loss. The market "seems to be pricing in greater liquidity needs" than the bank currently anticipates, one analyst said.

Ellis Phifer, managing director and senior strategist in the fixed income research department at Raymond James, talks with Chip Barnett about the state of the bond markets. (Taped Feb. 16; 15 minutes)

The Federal Reserve's quantitative-tightening program risks being propelled toward an early end as U.S. politicians bicker in Washington over raising the national debt limit, according to some economists and bond market participants.

The JPMorgan Chase CEO said the Federal Reserve's rate hikes might need to go beyond what's currently expected, but he's in favor of a pause to see the full impact of last year's increases.

The Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest-rate increases next month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powel suggested Wednesday, while stressing borrowing costs will need to keep rising.

North Carolina Republican Patrick McHenry — who's in line to lead the House Financial Services Committee after the GOP won control of the chamber in the midterm elections — has called for the Fed to stay focused on controlling inflation. Democrats, who retained the Senate, have begun to voice concerns that higher borrowing costs will hurt jobs and potentially cause a recession.

Massive mutual fund selloffs this year have returned the market to a pre-1976 investor landscape, when portfolios focused on individual demand, said MMA's Tom Doe.

Variable-rate debt, tender option bonds and even prepaid gas bonds may stage a comeback in the current market, panelists at a GFOA conference said.

A shift is underway at the Federal Reserve in how to describe neutral — the interest rate level that neither stimulates nor restrains growth — as it debates how much higher to hike.