Economic indicators

Municipals have been distracted by the robust primary market and that trend will continue next week when another large new-issue calendar greets investors.

Refinitiv Lipper reported $1.3 billion of inflows and an increase in high-yield flows, marking the 28th consecutive week the fund complex saw inflows.

While falling to the lowest amount of inflows since June 2, the total for the year according to ICI at $72 billion, is still on pace to come close to or break the record, $93.2 billion, hit in 2019.

Large new issues from California, New York utilities and airport deals were repriced to lower yields and remained the focus for the municipal market, again ignoring a swing by U.S. Treasuries.

A larger new-issue calendar greets investors with a lot of cash on hand and strategists expect municipal yields to rise as the calendar builds.

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its Beige Book report that U.S. economic growth slipped to a more moderate pace between early July and the end of August.

Refinitiv Lipper reported just over $1 billion of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds, an $800 million drop from a week prior, moving the four week moving average to $1.6 billion.

ICI reported $1.99 billion of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds, bringing the total to $69 billion for 2021.

Daily bid-wanteds totals per Bloomberg have fallen to an average par value below $450 million from $640 million per day during the first quarter and $549 million in the second.

Returns of negative 0.40% would be the third-worst August performance of the past 10 years, according to Bloomberg data.

While municipals were little changed, broader markets remain focused on Jackson Hole and speculating what will be said about tapering.

U.S. Treasuries gave little direction Monday, holding ratios and yields steady, leading most participants to argue both are satisfactory to ride out the summer.

The short end of the muni market saw trading of larger blocks at or below benchmarks but yield curves were little changed on a summer Friday.

Refinitiv Lipper reported $1.87 billion inflows. A solid demand component for the market, but some suggest the move into bonds from equities is more an asset reallocation than investors keen on fixed income.

Another $2 billion-plus was reported flowing into municipal bond mutual funds in the latest week, continuing to be a supportive demand component for munis.

Municipals are tethered to Treasuries, more so in recent sessions, and have cheapened, but strong technicals — $18.5 billion of net negative supply and large reinvestment needs — still hang overhead.

Triple-A benchmarks saw cuts of one to two basis points across the curve, but still outperformed two days of UST weakness and have outperformed UST losses since the start of the month.

Better-than-expected job gains, a rising UST complex and an increase in supply to test municipals' resolve.

Secondary trading petered off into Thursday afternoon, holding triple-A benchmarks steady as most participants await Friday's nonfarm payrolls.

The short end of the market has little room to fall lower.